The Wolves Are Equipped To Shoot More Threes Next Year

Three-point shooting efficiency and volume have defined the last decade of NBA basketball. Teams can compete in the regular season without ample three-point shooting. However, once the playoffs roll around, having as much floor spacing as possible has become vital. Floor spacing was one of the Minnesota Timberwolves’ biggest weaknesses in their matchup with the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals.

Minnesota lacked overall shooting talent from the top to the bottom of the roster.

As a result, Dallas could sag off non-shooters to focus their attention on Anthony Edwards’ drives and Karl-Anthony Towns’ touches, forcing others to beat them. The Mavericks played impressive defense in the second half of the season and had plenty of weapons at their disposal. However, the Wolves cannot contend if opponents can single out players offensively.

In response, the Wolves tweaked the back end of their roster in the offseason in ways that should improve their three-point shooting.

Kyle Anderson departed after shooting (use his shooting stats here). The Wolves also drafted Rob Dillingham and TJ Shannon and signed Joe Ingles. In doing so, they have created more optionality for the regular season and the playoffs because they have supplanted the back end of the rotation with a reliable shooting option and multiple upside swings.

The Wolves are building upon a strong foundation. Last year, they ranked third in the NBA in three-point shooting at 38.7%, but they ranked 23rd in three-point volume with 32.9 attempts. It remains uncertain how much more they will shoot next year.

Three-point shooting is a balance, but it remains crucial to finding Minnesota’s best three-point shooters from last year in rhythm. While teams can increase their three-point volume by forcing more shots, they will not be good looks. Regardless of personnel, it still takes high on-court IQ and good offensive schematics to convert three-point shots at high volume. The Wolves already have the shooting prowess. However, they need to find better ways to get those core players open looks and surround them with better lineups.

Minnesota’s four highest-volume shooters did most of the work. Anthony Edwards (6.7 3PA), Karl-Anthony Towns (5.3 3PA), Mike Conley (5.3 3PA), and Naz Reid (5.0 3PA) combined for 22.3 or 68% of their 32.9 attempts as a team. Collectively, they shot 40.7% from three.

Therefore, the bench and role players must step up to increase Minnesota’s three-point volume. Last year, the Wolves had depth players who were not reliable from three, which affected the entire unit’s ceiling. Having a complementary roster top to bottom has become increasingly vital for teams looking to contend.

Jordan McLaughlin, Monte Morris, Kyle Anderson, and Shake Milton’s lack of shooting caused issues for the Wolves. Part of it is because finding effective spacers on team-friendly contracts has become increasingly difficult. However, it didn’t help that none of their off-season and trade acquisitions offer much of a threat from beyond the arc. Therefore, spacing the floor became difficult, even before Anderson’s unexpected plunge in three-point attempts.

Creative offenses can get away with functional offense and optimal usage of their shooters, even when they share the floor with non-spacers. However, the Wolves didn’t have the firepower or movement scorers to keep up with many of their lineup combinations effectively. A major part of this was that they had to work around Rudy Gobert, an elite defensive player who is limited offensively.

Playing with more pace is the simple fix. Adding two young, proven transition scorers, Dillingham and Shannon, to the rotation is the easiest way to get them involved and build synergy with the rest of their proven teammates.

Ultimately, a lot of it comes down to Edwards’ development. Last season, he took the most mid-range shots of his career, primarily because teams loaded up on him in the paint. However, Minnesota’s opponents will have difficulty limiting his shooting if it spaces the floor better. They won’t want to sag off Edwards too much, which will allow them to have more three-point opportunities. However, they also won’t want to press him too hard, which will enable him to drive downhill. Edwards’ shot diet could easily change with the Wolves’ roster changes.

Edwards’ co-star can also help his case. KAT’s lower shot release makes it more difficult for him to get as many shots off as the league's top three-point shooting creators. However, there’s no reason he can’t increase his three-point volume attempts per game this season. There were plenty of pockets of opportunity for him to let it fly more frequently this past season.

Minnesota’s roster and identity are much more different than in 2021-22, when they shot the most threes in the league with 41.3 attempts per game. Still, there is an easier pathway to finding that balance between volume and shot quality that will maintain the Wolves’ identity while tweaking a vital area they can improve upon.