The Vikings May Be Banking On the Wrong Draft To Fix Their Problems

When the Minnesota Vikings fired Rick Spielman after the 2021 season, they wanted to try something new. Spielman had been an old-school general manager, working his way up from a scouting background and enjoying a 16-year tenure in Minnesota. But as the game changed, they decided to dive into analytics and hire Kwesi Adofo-Mensah.

After being forged as a daytime trader and a former Ivy League graduate, Adofo-Mensah brought some different ideas to the Vikings. But it went as well as Bart Simpson enjoying an all-syrup Super Squishy.

Failed draft classes and free-agent signings eventually led the Vikings to give Adofo-Mensah a pink slip, and they have been trying to repair the damage this offseason. But the centerpiece may come this week as they prepare for their first (and possibly only) draft under interim general manager Rob Brzezinski.

Minnesota's free-agent period suggests they would like to build through the draft and construct the type of long-term foundation that Adofo-Mensah could not in his four years and charge. But, as the draft nears, there are more signs that the Vikings’ timing could not be worse, leaving an average class with the task of saving the franchise.

Before we start, let’s note that the Vikings aren’t exactly in dire straits. They have one of the most respected head coaches in the league in Kevin O’Connell. They have Brian Flores, a defensive coordinator so good that it required $6 million per season to keep him around. Having Justin Jefferson on your roster is another good place to start. But it’s the underpinnings that need improvement.

For years, that’s where the Vikings have struggled. The 2022 draft class was a disaster, with no players remaining with the team after Jalen Nailor and Ty Chandler departed this offseason. The 2023 class only yielded Jordan Addison as a long-term piece and Jay Ward as a bubble player. If J.J. McCarthy doesn’t turn it around, the 2024 class will be known only for Dallas Turner and Will Reichard. Last year’s class didn’t make an immediate impact outside of starting guard Donovan Jackson.

Looking at that example, the Vikings have found some players who could be in the starting lineup for years to come. But they don’t have that depth that good teams have, either in case of injuries or to make the big play when the usual suspects are covered.

That's why Minnesota's buildup to the draft has been uneventful. The Vikings own nine picks this weekend, including the 18th-overall selection in the first round and four top-100 selections (Nos. 49, 82, and 97). In most drafts, this would be a great way to inject some youth into a roster that keeps getting older. However, the signs point to Minnesota having chosen the wrong year to start that process.

The first domino fell on Saturday night when the New York Giants traded Dexter Lawrence to the Cincinnati Bengals. Lawrence is a game-wrecker for the middle of the defensive line, and it’s hard to blame the Bengals for seeing him as a way to keep Joe Burrow happy. But they’re also a team that needs cheap young talent to build around Burrow and his two highly paid receivers, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

It would have been understandable if the Bengals held tight and added Caleb Downs, Rueben Bain Jr., or Mansoor Delane with the 10th-overall pick. But their decision to go with a proven commodity signals they weren’t really in love with any of the players who would have been available. Again, we can’t ignore the Burrow factor, but the Bengals weren’t the only ones who hinted this draft may not be it.

In Adam Schefter's Monday morning notebook, an anonymous general manager said: “This was not a great year to have a top-10 pick.” Schefter added that “another front office executive called the first half of Round 1 ‘uninspiring’ and ‘other executives believe that one of the strong suits of this class might be in the third and fourth rounds.’”

Given that context, you may be thinking it’s a good idea for the Vikings to trade down from the 18th-overall pick on Thursday night. But they may not have a taker if the league views the top talent as average at best.

The same goes for any attempt to get adequate value for Jonathan Greenard. Schefter added that the Philadelphia Eagles remain the top suitor for the star edge rusher, but the Vikings want “a premium Day 2 pick in return.”

Again, the Eagles could just say, “No thanks,” and draft a player with the 54th, 68th, and 98th selections on Day 2. But Schefter noted, “The Eagles’ wish list of trade candidates goes well beyond Greenard,” and said Philadelphia GM Howie Roseman “almost always has a Plan A, B, C, and D.”

Those comments make it seem like those picks are burning a hole in Roseman’s pocket, and it seemed even more so when Schefter also discussed the possibility of Philadelphia trading A.J. Brown to the New England Patriots.

“The Eagles are also not concerned about adding draft capital for this week’s draft; acquiring additional picks in 2027 and 2028 is more enticing to them, per sources,” Schefter wrote. “Picks in future years were the compensation that was discussed when the Eagles and Rams had extensive trade conversations regarding Brown, which did not materialize into a deal.”

We should note that Brown’s contract makes it more beneficial for the Eagles to trade him after June 1. But if you’ve gotten lost, here’s what we know:

• A Bengals team in need of young, cheap talent opted to give up their 10th-overall pick to get a defensive tackle with a bad elbow and give him a one-year, $28 million extension.
• The Eagles may not be willing to give up a Day 2 pick for Jonathan Greenard, but they could have multiple trade talks in place to not make some of the selections in the second and third rounds.
• Anonymous GMs are also saying the draft's strength is later, which may limit the number of trade partners who could help the Vikings trade down.

Through all of this, the Vikings seem intent on having a safe draft where nothing gets too crazy like a college kid who swore off drinking the night after deciding to chug a liter of Fireball.

Perhaps Brzezinski and the rest of Minnesota’s brain trust aren’t looking to go full Spielman, who once traded down so frequently that he wound up making 15 selections in the 2020 draft. But it’s another instance of bad timing for a franchise that never seems to make the right decision in the right window.

Focusing on youth over high-priced Band-Aid signings in free agency is the approach the Vikings should take. But if they are expecting this draft to save them (and their jobs), it could be a doomed approach that inspires nothing but more mediocrity for a team looking to break through.