The Vikings Can't Pass On Caleb Downs If He Slides On Draft Night

I’ve been writing a lot about the Minnesota Vikings’ need at safety this offseason. Almost immediately after Brian Flores inked his deal to remain in Minnesota, safety was solidified as one of their top needs. Last week, I dove deep into two of the trendy safety prospects getting routinely mocked to the Vikings at pick 18 this offseason: Dillon Thieneman and Emmanuel McNeil-Warren. However, I did so assuming that they couldn't land Caleb Downs.

The modern safety is one of my favorite positions in the sport. They have to do a little bit of everything, and they just embody what it means to be a football player. It’s no surprise to me that some of the best defenses in the game currently are those that are finding creative ways to take advantage of some of their most versatile athletes on the field, and Flores is at the forefront of this revolution at the position.

Throughout this whole process, though, I’ve been treating the top safety prospect like the head cheerleader in a teenage rom-com. Obviously, Ohio State’s Caleb Downs is way out of our league. We’d never get a chance to ask him to the prom, right?

Then, in a recent radio interview, NFL.com draft guru Daniel Jeremiah teased us all with a glimmer of hope.

Downs is a player many analysts rank among the top three to five in this class, if you ignore positional value. Downs brings so much savvy, versatility, leadership, and polish to his game and has been the undisputed leader of his defense at Alabama and Ohio State.

He was First-team All-SEC as a freshman at Bama and First-team All-American in both his sophomore and junior seasons at Ohio State. He was a captain on one of the best defenses in college football at Ohio State from his first game as a Buckeye, a strong statement from that coaching staff to give that honor to a transfer, considering the amount of NFL talent on that roster.

He’s really, really good. And I’ve spent most of this offseason not even considering him as a possibility for Flores' defense, simply assuming that there’s no way he’d slip outside the top 10 into reasonable striking range for Minnesota to consider making a move. Then the comments from Jeremiah made me wonder: Is it that crazy?

It feels like nearly every year, the undisputed top safety prospect slides much further than people expect. Even as safeties become more in vogue on gameday, the NFL world still doesn’t draft them like they’re a premier edge rusher or a lockdown cornerback. Derwin James, Kyle Hamilton, and Brian Branch are all examples of premier safety prospects who had significant falls on draft day despite the entire NFL world acknowledging that they’re damn good football players.

While we still await Arif Hasan’s Consensus Big Board — the best on the market for my money — the second-best is from NFL Mock Draft Database. It’s skewed a bit, as it conflates big boards and mock drafts, muddying the distinction between what analysts think should happen and what they predict will happen, which naturally lowers a player's value when the position is safety.

All that said, they still have Downs as the ninth-overall player, and I’ll bet he’s closer to the top five when we get Arif’s later this April.

Compare that to some of these other top prospects. Minkah Fitzpatrick and Derwin James were sixth and seventh, respectively, on the consensus board in 2018, and they both fell out of the top 10. Derwin James all the way to pick 21! Vikings fans are still haunted by the ghost of Kyle Hamilton sliding to them at pick 12 in 2022, only for them to trade out of the pick with the Detroit Lions instead, and Hamilton eventually went to the Baltimore Ravens at pick 14 despite being the fourth-overall player in the class by consensus.

Is it completely crazy to think that Downs could suffer a similar fate, and that Minnesota could finally be the benefactors for once?

Downs is an undisputedly great player, but there are a few things about his profile that could make a team second-guess whether he’s worth the premium capital. He’s not seen as an elite size/speed combination at 6'0", 206 lbs. While his speed is never in question when you watch him, he declined athletic testing at the combine and his pro day. That lack of elite numbers for a GM to look at could give them wandering eyes.

Especially when there’s some good value at safety in the first and second rounds. We’ve discussed at length players like Dillon Thieneman, Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, and A.J. Haulcy, just a few of the interesting options in the first three rounds of the draft. A team could easily tell themselves that it’s more prudent to wait and fill that need later. And if you think Minnesota should be one of those teams, I can’t fault your logic.

Yet I disagree. The idea of pairing Downs’ instincts and versatility with a playcaller like Brian Flores is too tantalizing. His ability to attack the line of scrimmage, cover out of the slot, and play in the deep middle of the field makes him incredibly valuable. He’d be a true do-it-all safety, with the instincts to fill the very big cleats Harrison Smith is leaving behind whenever he finally hangs them up.

Downs could be a beautiful combination of best player available and a positional need. That’s simply not something Minnesota can pass up, even if it means getting a little aggressive.

If a top-five player like Downs does indeed fall outside the top 10, I’m not sure Minnesota should wait until pick 18. In general, I’m not a big fan of trading up in this draft, but Downs is the exception. And he perceived that the “flat” nature of this draft’s talent curve could mean the cost of trading up is not nearly as dire as in most classes.

The Dallas Cowboys at pick 12 are a popular landing spot for Downs. If Downs were available when the Miami Dolphins got on the clock at pick 11, wouldn’t a team in a full teardown like the Dolphins be a prime trade partner? I proposed the following trade, which the charts show gives Miami a small amount of excess value but wouldn’t be an egregious overpay.

And if Downs manages to slip past Dallas at 12, then we’re really cooking with gas. The teams from picks 13 to 16 don’t have any major need at safety, and if they selected Downs, it would be purely from a best-player-available philosophy. All of them could be willing trade partners, and the negotiating pressure comes off once Downs slides past Dallas.

The pressure point could be the division rival Lions at pick 17, who could use an upgrade at safety alongside star Brian Branch, and who have prioritized the position in the past. Ensuring they don’t have the chance to crush your draft dreams (one pick ahead of you) might incentivize a swap with a team like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 15 or the New York Jets at 16. According to the Rich Hill trade chart, you should be able to move up to either 15 or 16, just pick 97 at the most. That once again feels completely worth it in my eyes.

In closing, what better way to reverse the karmic energy from Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s tenure? He began his draft woes by trading down past an elite safety in Hamilton, and drafting a bust in Lewis Cine after accruing supposedexcess value. Doing the exact opposite and moving up to secure the elite safety could be the perfect poetic ending to this chapter of Vikings history.

Keep it simple. Draft good players. Caleb Downs is one of the best in this class, and you’re a perfect fit. If the opportunity presents itself, fortune favors the bold.