The Vikings Are One Piece Away From Being A Dominant Offense (and It's Not T.J. Hockenson)

With the game on the line in the fourth quarter, Minnesota Vikings fans were in a situation that Kris Boyd would love. Holding onto a 20-17 lead over the New York Jets, the Vikings had possession and were in the driver’s seat, ready to kill the clock and get out of London with a victory.

All was well until Ty Chandler ran into the back of his offensive line for a yard. A 25-yard pass from Sam Darnold to Justin Jefferson gave Minnesota some breathing room. However, Ed Ingram's illegal block in the back negated Chandler’s four-yard run to the outside.

Partly because of the penalty, the Vikings threw the ball five times on a nine-play drive, resulting in Will Reichard's 41-yard field goal. Still, the drive was an example of why Minnesota is one piece away from being a truly dominant offense – and it’s not T.J. Hockenson.

The Vikings have a glaring problem in the backfield: They do not have a suitable backup to Aaron Jones. While many will suggest that running backs don’t matter in the modern game, it seems to be a problem when the Vikings don’t have one, and that was on full display Sunday morning.

Jones started strong for Minnesota, carrying the ball seven times for 29 yards and making a leaping 24-yard reception in the first half. When he exited the game with a hip injury, Chandler got an opportunity to validate the hype that has percolated since the Vikings selected him in the fifth round of the 2022 draft.

Chandler caught everyone's attention with a strong performance during the 2022 preseason, but an injury turned his rookie year into a redshirt season. When the Vikings released Dalvin Cook in the summer of 2023, many had large expectations for Chandler based on his speed — he clocked a 4.38-second 40-yard-dash time at the 2022 scouting combine.

He also had a history of production, mainly in the final season of his collegiate career. Anchoring North Carolina’s rushing attack, Chandler ran for 1,092 yards, 13 touchdowns, and an average of six yards per carry while also catching 15 passes for 216 yards and a touchdown.

The profile is something you would dream about playing Madden or College Football 25, but it doesn’t always translate to the NFL. Chandler had another strong debut in the 2023 preseason. However, when starter Alexander Mattison struggled, the Vikings refused to make the shift until Mattison got injured in November.

When Chandler received his first start in a Week 14 game against the Cincinnati Bengals, he carried the ball 23 times for 132 yards and a touchdown while catching three passes for 25 yards. However, his numbers dropped in the final three games. Chandler carried the ball 30 times for 126 yards and a touchdown while adding five catches for 44 yards.

A negative game script has something to do with that decline, but so did Chandler’s efficiency.

While Pro Football Reference does not track success rate – the number of times a player gets 40% of yards needed on first down, 60% of yards needed on second down, and 100% of yards needed on third or fourth down – on a game-by-game basis, Chandler’s 45.1% success rate would have ranked just ahead of Mattison’s 45% rate, which was 38th out of 48 qualifying runner’s last season.

That was a big reason the Vikings didn’t make Chandler the starter heading into this year and opted to sign Jones to a one-year, $7 million contract in free agency.

Jones’ 60.6% success rate ranks third among running backs behind Chuba Hubbard (67.6%) and Chase Brown (61%). Still, he has also contributed 8.23 yards per route run on screen concepts, the fourth-highest clip among running backs per Pro Football Focus.

Mix in 3.55 yards after contact – the 10th-highest clip among qualifying running backs this season – and it’s easy to see why Jones is on pace for 255 carries even after missing the final three quarters in Sunday’s win over the Jets. But it was even more glaring when Chandler came into the game.

A Jets defense that had been gashed by Jordan Mason, Javonte Williams, and others this season had no issues against Chandler, holding him to 30 yards on 14 carries. While the offensive line also had a bad day, Chandler made things worse with a fumble on a pitch and 1.93 yards after contact.

Chandler’s season also hasn't gone as planned despite his solid 4.2 yards per carry. His 39.3% success rate ranks 45th among 51 qualifying runners, and his 1.74 yards after contract is last out of 58 qualifying running backs this season.

O’Connell is a pass-first coach, and getting Hockenson back will open some space underneath that will help Darnold burn the clock in late-game situations. However, having a serviceable running back would have created an even more methodical approach, taking more time off the clock before Aaron Rodgers had the chance to win the game.

Outside of Jones, the Vikings do not have a reliable option in the backfield. Given his age (30) and track record, they need to find an upgrade for Chandler or risk falling into the same trap they almost fell into on Sunday.