The Twins’ Winning Formula Is One Big Parlay

After mutually parting ways with former Minnesota Twins president and general manager Derek Falvey in late January, new controlling owner Tom Pohlad said he’d like to “get off this ‘payroll’ thing for a second” and revisit it later in the year. He also said the Twins will be competitive in 2026.

Payroll has constantly been a topic of discussion with the Twins. However, it has shifted from Why can’t the Twins spend like the New York Yankees? to Why are they spending less than the Athletics and the Pittsburgh Pirates?

The first is a relatively simple answer. Teams like the New York Yankees, New York Mets, and Los Angeles Dodgers reside in large markets and have their own television deals. Therefore, they keep more of the revenue they generate, which is higher than that of smaller-market teams to begin with. They have larger subscription bases because they reside in America’s two largest cities and can charge more for ads due to their high viewership.

Major League Baseball has set the luxury tax threshold at $244 million this year. Teams are allowed to go above it, but the league taxes them for doing so. MLB taxes the highest spenders to encourage parity, knowing teams in smaller markets with standard television contracts can’t support the payrolls of larger franchises.

Only seven teams are spending above the tax threshold. The Dodgers ($396 million), the Mets ($368 million), the Yankees ($325 million), and the Philadelphia Phillies ($310 million) are baseball’s biggest spenders and are above the luxury tax for the third time. Therefore, they pay an exorbitant tax bill. The Dodgers and Mets are spending over $100 million in luxury tax alone.

The Toronto Blue Jays ($302 million), the San Diego Padres ($262 million), and the Boston Red Sox ($254 million) are above the tax, but only for the second time. They have a smaller tax bill, including only $2 million for the Red Sox.

Spending tends to correlate with television market size, because teams make most of their money off TV revenue and season-ticket sales. New York and Los Angeles are the two biggest TV markets. Philadelphia is No. 4, and Boston is 7. Toronto is the fourth-largest city in North America, trailing only Mexico City, New York, and Los Angeles.

San Diego is America’s 28th-largest TV market, but it’s the 20th-largest city in North America. It’s larger than Dallas, Austin, Tex., and San Jose, Calif. The Padres are likely spending to encroach on the LA market, especially with the Los Angeles Angels carrying the 15th-largest payroll. The Angels haven’t made the playoffs since 2014 and haven’t won a playoff game since 2009, creating an opportunity for the Padres to act as LA’s “second team.”

Teams also spend because it correlates to winning. Per VegasInsider, which aggregates gambling odds, every luxury tax team is among the ten best teams in the league, except for San Diego.

Below are the top-10 over/under win total bets from VegasInsider:

However, teams don’t need to spend above the luxury tax to compete. The Seattle Mariners reside in America’s 14th largest TV market, one above Minneapolis-St. Paul (15th). They have a relatively modest payroll ($183 million). Still, the betting markets indicate they’ll finish with a win total near the New York teams, the Phillies, and the Chicago Cubs, who reside in America’s third-largest market.

The Detroit Tigers (market 11) have the highest payroll of any non-luxury tax team at $237 million, above the Atlanta Braves (market 9), the Houston Astros (market 10), and the Cubs (market 3). The Kansas City Royals (market 31) aren’t spending like Detroit, but they have a similar payroll to Seattle ($182 million).

That’s about what the Twins would be spending had they continued to invest in the team after beating Toronto in the playoffs in 2023. Minnesota had a $165 million payroll that year. However, they slashed it by $35 million in 2024, and it’s down to $102 million this season. As a result, they’ve had losing seasons and low attendance.

The Twins aren’t just spending less than the big-market luxury-tax teams. They’re only spending more than three teams. 

As a result, there’s a meaningful disparity between where the betting markets believe Detroit and KC will finish this season, and how Minnesota will fare.

FanGraphs is slightly more bullish on the Twins, placing them at 78 wins. However, the disparity between the analytics FanGraphs uses and the betting markets is that gamblers are probably expecting Minnesota to sell again at the deadline, which would lower their win total.

If the Twins are at a 78-win pace, they likely will move anyone on a short-term deal or who has significant value to rebuild for next year. Doing so will put them on a pace to lose more games. Minnesota was on an 85-loss pace before the deadline last season. However, they played at a 105-loss pace in August and September, worse than any team but the Colorado Rockies.

There may have been a clear pathway for the Twins to win before Pablo López suffered a season-ending injury, and Bailey Ober’s velocity dropped. However, after depleting their bullpen last season and failing to invest in the lineup this year, it will be hard for them to win with pitching alone. They would have needed a healthier starting rotation and a better bullpen entering the season.

Therefore, a winning season for the Twins becomes one big parlay, mostly revolving around young players. Luke Keaschall, Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, and Walker Jenkins will have to carry the lineup. Joe Ryan, Mick Abel, and Taj Bradley will have to become a 1-2-3 punch in the rotation, and some converted starting prospects will have to fill out the bullpen.

It won’t need to be those names specifically, but those players are most likely to tap into their upside this year. Veterans like Byron Buxton and Ryan Jeffers can’t buoy the team alone. Therefore, there’s a way for this team to win unexpectedly, just like some young, exciting Twins teams from the past. However, it’s unlikely.

Their best bet is to find a way to spend like Seattle and Kansas City – or, in the best-case scenario, Detroit – sooner than later. It’s hard to enter the season with a lower payroll than the A’s and Pirates and expect to win.