The Twins Have A Tell

Joe Ryan is impervious to the evils of Yankee Stadium.

The coliseum that the New York Yankees built to scare off mid-market teams has no effect on Ryan. He owns a 3.30 ERA against the Bronx Bombers and had seven strikeouts and only gave up one earned run on Wednesday night.

Ryan pitches well against the Yankees because he’s a good pitcher. The Minnesota Twins need more pitchers like Ryan to compete in the playoffs. They have another, Pablo López, who’s hurt. However, after that, they mostly have developmental starters and piggybackers.

Unfortunately, there’s open speculation that the Twins will trade Ryan and López. Ryan will enter Year 2 of arbitration, meaning Minnesota must give him a raise from his $3 million salary to retain him. The Twins owe López $21.75 million this year and next.

Want to know if the Twins are rebooting, or just shedding as much salary as possible to save money?

Look at how they handle Ryan and López.

Nobody’s going to love this, but the Twins should trade Ryan and López in two years. Both pitchers will turn 31 in 2027, and most players exit their prime at 32. Pitchers, especially, become injury-prone and less effective in their 30s.

However, $21.75 million is a good value for López next year, and Ryan won’t make so much in his second year of arbitration that he becomes an albatross. The Twins should only trade pitchers like López and Ryan if they get an offer they can’t refuse. There’s no competitive reason to offload them.

Ultimately, if the Twins are rebooting, they need viable starters at the top of the rotation to field a competitive team. Minnesota isn't going to contend next year, but it should maintain a competitive environment for its developmental players. Retaining Ryan and López will also give Derek Falvey’s developmental pitchers, like Zebby Matthews, David Festa, and Andrew Morris, time to earn a spot in the rotation or bullpen.

Retaining Ryan and López for another season and then flipping them makes baseball sense, even on a tight budget amid declining television revenues. Trading them next year would continue to kill fan morale.

The problem with the Twins is that the Pohlad family has eroded trust throughout its 40 years of team ownership. Threatening to contract the team and slashing payroll after winning a playoff series for the first time since 2002 will do that.

As a result, we can’t have a reasonable conversation about the Twins.

There is no longer nuance, only anger and fatalism. Trading Ryan in two years, as popular and productive as he’s been, shouldn’t mean they won’t extend Royce Lewis or Luke Keaschall. Still, the typical response, cheap Pohlads, is hard to refute.

Why would anyone believe they’ll green-light extensions for their best players? And if they don’t, why would anyone think the Twins are anything more than a glorified farm team?

We’re back to that conversation. The fleeting moment two years ago when it looked like the Twins might become the modern-day St. Louis Cardinals is gone. $160 million payroll, slashed. Any hope of building on that breakthrough is gone.

Now, we must discover what the Twins have become. Are they the Tampa Bay Rays or the Cleveland Guardians, teams that experience frequent turnover and moderate playoff success? Or will they become the Pittsburgh Pirates or Baltimore Orioles in the ‘90s and early aughts? Teams that endured long stretches of losing seasons before experiencing moderate playoff success.

The Twins have become macabre theater. Admit it, they can be insidiously fun. Keaschall has a smooth swing and long, flowing hair. Austin Martin is looking like a top prospect again. Lewis might have recaptured some of his magic.

“It does feel like a different team in a lot of ways,” said Rocco Baldelli. “We’re playing with a different type of energy and different styles of baseball on a lot of nights.

“That makes it feel different to me. You’ve gotta take that as an invigorating feeling.”

Still, none of that matters if the Twins won’t commit to re-signing their best players. Failing to do so means random, moderate playoff success surrounded by years of losing.

Trading position players who can hit into their 30s before they reach arbitration makes financial sense. Still, it’s not a way to build a winning team. Not in Minnesota, where teams like the Seattle Mariners and the Colorado Rockies spend more on payroll. However, it’s a way for ownership to reduce operational costs while the franchise's value increases.

Baldelli said the team felt invigorated after winning four of five games following the trade deadline. However, the Yankees provided a reality check for the Twins. They always do.

Minnesota needs pitchers like Ryan. That’s how he and López earn multimillion-dollar salaries. The only reason a team wouldn’t pay productive players in their prime is if they aren’t trying to win.