The Twins Are Asking Their Youth To Save Them This Season

The Minnesota Twins have reached Opening Day, and for most baseball fans, that comes with a peak level of optimism. No matter how bad things were the previous year, there’s a chance a team could come out of nowhere and surprise everyone -- a lot can happen over a 162-game schedule.

But for Twins fans, Target Field might as well look like Castle Grayskull. Within two years, the Twins went from division champions to focusing on right-sizing the business. The Pohlads are still in charge, and fans may replicate the diner scene from Major League after looking at the roster.

But even with the bad vibes, the glimmer of hope remains. Therefore, the best question we can ask entering the season is how the Twins can exceed their low bar.

The pessimistic Twins fan will remind you that it’s a tall task. The Twins are predicted to finish no higher than third in the AL Central according to FanGraph’s ZiPS and Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA models. Others who go with their gut have them toward the bottom of the divisions, with BetMGM Sportsbooks setting their projected win total at 72.5-73.5 wins.

Looking around the division, you can see why everyone is so bearish. The Detroit Tigers are spending more on their starting rotation than Minnesota’s entire roster. The Kansas City Royals have a $182 millon payroll and have a legitimate superstar in Bobby Witt Jr. The Cleveland Guardians are usually in the playoff race at the end of the year, and the Chicago White Sox even dumped money into their roster after finishing in last place each of the past two seasons. They racked up over 100 losses in each of the past three seasons.

Then there’s the Twins. After trading away 10 major league players ahead of last year’s deadline, those who were on the roster after July 31 are the most accurate depiction of this year’s roster. That group went 19-35 over the final two months, which is a 57-win pace over 162 games, and it’s virtually the same group with Victor Caratini, Taylor Rogers, and Josh Bell the only notable additions last winter.

But that’s not all: The starting rotation is worse than it was a year ago, after losing Pablo López to a torn UCL during the team’s first full-squad practice in Spring Training. Bailey Ober’s fastball is hovering around 88 mph, and it could get even weaker if the Twins trade Joe Ryan at some point this season. Asking Twins fans to name three bullpen pitchers is about as hard as finishing the 9-9-9 challenge without puking, and the lineup has its typical “ticking time bomb” feel with Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis.

That should be all the negative things the Twins have going into the season, and it’s a pretty long list. But it’s Opening Day, and we’re here to talk about optimism, even if it’s hard to find.

Buxton needs to stay healthy and continue the elite level of production (.264/.327/.551, 35 HR, 83 RBI, 24 SB, 4.9 WAR) he had a season ago. Lewis is in the same vein as a player who has flashed as a former No. 1 overall pick but has been in an endless slump after the baseball gods LOL’d at his ill-fated "I don't do that slump thing" comment a few years ago.

Matt Wallner and Ryan Jeffers are in “now or never” territory as they enter their late 20s. However, the real hope may lie in the youth on this team.

Luke Keaschall had an impressive rookie season, but he needs to avoid the same wall that others like Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Jose Miranda hit when reaching the major leagues. Brooks Lee is also a curious case as a former top-ten pick who may need a position change to reach his full potential. Still, he could establish himself if he hits consistently.

The starting rotation has its own opportunity. Taj Bradley and Mick Abel are coming off strong Spring Trainings, and it’s crazy to think that Simeon Woods Richardson is still only 25 years old. Zebby Matthews may need a strong start in St. Paul to get his season going, but the bullpen could have reinforcements on the way if Connor Prielipp or Marco Raya also perform well with the Saints.

Then there’s the prospects. Walker Jenkins is nursing a hamstring injury but should make his debut this summer. A Roman Anthony impact is probably a pipe dream, but not impossible, considering the hype he has gained throughout his major league career.

Kaelen Culpepper is another prospect who could kick the door down to the major leagues, although it’s not certain where he will play full-time. Emmanuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez, and Kendry Rojas are also top-10 prospects projected to make their debuts this summer, according to MLB Pipeline. If any of them play well, it could raise Minnesota's ceiling.

All of these “what ifs” are unlikely to bat 1.000. But if the Twins can score some small wins, it could be enough to grab the attention of a team that needs to breathe life into its fan base. Maybe that’s another task reserved for the Sword of Power, but on Opening Day, it’s OK to dream and wonder if things aren’t as grey as they seem to be.