The Rams Game Will Test Minnesota's Makeup

There was much to unpack after the Minnesota Vikings lost to the Lions on Sunday. It was a back-and-forth game, but Detroit Lions kicker Jake Bates won it on a 44-yard field goal with 15 seconds left to seal the 31-29 win.

The Vikings erased an 11-point deficit when Ivan Pace Jr. scooped up a fumble and ran it back for a touchdown with under six minutes to go in the game. Despite the loss, the 5-1 Vikings have proven they belong among the NFC’s best.

The game lived up to the hype, and the Vikings should feel good about their efforts despite making some mistakes. But they had a looming challenge whether or not they beat the Lions. Four days later, they must play a road game against Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams. Sometimes, playing a weaker opponent after a hard-fought game can create a “trap game.”

Injuries have played a significant role in the Rams’ 2-4 start. Star wideouts Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp have missed most of the season with injuries, combining for three starts. Their offensive line has had its share of injuries, resulting in hits on 36-year-old Matthew Stafford.

However, the Rams still have McVay, one of the league’s best head coaches. Together, he and Stafford give the Rams a chance to compete every week. Three of their losses have been by six points or fewer, and despite their record, they are only 1.5 games behind the Seahawks in the NFC West. This team isn’t ready to give up on the season.

None of this changes the fact that the Vikings need to beat the Rams to continue to contend in the NFC. Kevin O’Connell says the outside noise doesn’t matter, but great teams handle their business. Losing to a division rival that is a Super Bowl contender is one thing. Adding a loss to an inferior opponent would suggest the Vikings don’t have the mental fortitude to navigate the ebbs and flows of a contending season.

Most metrics still view the Vikings favorably after Sunday’s loss. They rank third in Total DVOA. Even though Jared Goff carved Minnesota’s defense up, they remain the top-ranked defense, according to DVOA. Their defense is also ranked first in EPA (Expected Points Added) allowed. The Rams’ offense has been league-average, ranking 17th in DVOA and 22nd in EPA.

Some criticized Brian Flores for heavily blitzing Goff on Sunday (55% of dropbacks, according to NextGenStats). After Flores’ “fight fire with fire” comments last week, it’s hard to envision him dialing back the blitz just for the sake of change.

But will he change his blitz looks against Stafford, who has seen almost every variety of blitz and coverage during his 16-year career? Or will he keep doing what’s worked most of the season, knowing that not every team can handle his defense like the Lions?

Minnesota’s offense has also been in the middle of the pack (15th in DVOA and 16th in EPA) and has struggled in the past eight quarters. But five of their first six opponents had pass defenses ranked in the top 13 in the league. Perhaps Sam Darnold and the Vikings can get back on track facing the Rams' defense, which is 28th in DVOA and 26th in EPA allowed.

The Vikings signed Darnold to be a veteran presence in the quarterback room. Even though he has never lived up to his status as the third-overall pick in the 2018 draft, he is still the offensive leader in 2024.

Darnold has thrown one touchdown and three interceptions in the past eight quarters, including a miss to Justin Jefferson on a crucial third-and-four that could have iced the game against the Lions. Fans and analysts are wondering if Darnold is reverting to his old habits. A good, efficient performance in front of the nation on Thursday would show he can bounce back.

O’Connell also faces a test of maturity in this game. He was the Rams’ offensive coordinator from 2020-21 under McVay, and this will be his first time facing them since taking over as head coach in Minnesota. With the offense in a bit of a rut the past few weeks, does O’Connell go back to basics to get the team on track? Or does he try to open up the playbook in front of his old boss?

The Vikings had a similar matchup two years ago. They lost 40-3 to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, a week after their miracle win in Buffalo. In some ways, it was fortunate that they had to quickly put the game behind them and prepare for the New England Patriots on Thanksgiving night four days later.

New England had drafted O’Connell in 2008. He was complimentary of the organization and Bill Belichick, attributing much of his coaching success to his time there. Still, the Vikings and O’Connell handled their emotions, winning 33-26 to improve to 9-2.

Thursday’s game against the Rams will likely not break any viewing records for Amazon. The Vikings are three-point favorites, but the short week and travel plans work against them. A win doesn’t change the team’s perception, but these games are where great teams take advantage. Go in, take care of business, and enjoy the mini-bye week.