The Bears Are A Different Animal Since Their Last Matchup With Minnesota

Only 22 days separate the two meetings between the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears this season, yet this upcoming matchup couldn’t look more different than the last. They first faced off on Nov. 24 at Soldier Field, where the Bears always give the Vikings fits. Chicago entered that game on a four-game losing streak, raising questions about head coach Matt Eberflus’ job security.

The Bears also came into the game with Thomas Brown serving as their interim offensive coordinator for the second week. Brown called a solid game, helping the Bears rack up 398 yards against the Vikings and erase a 27-16 deficit in the game’s final two minutes.

But in overtime, Chicago’s offensive explosion fizzled. They went three-and-out, punted to the Vikings, and allowed Sam Darnold to march Minnesota 68 yards downfield for a 30-27 victory. Chicago would lose again four days later to the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving, and they fired Eberflus the following day.

The Bears named Brown their interim head coach, while wide receivers coach Chris Beatty took over as offensive coordinator. However, Chicago managed only four (!) yards of offense in the first half of their 38-13 loss to the San Francisco 49ers last Sunday.

Vegas favors the Vikings by seven points, and they should win their seventh consecutive game this week. Winners of six straight, Minnesota’s offense has been on fire lately. They have posted at least 400 yards of offense in every game during the win streak, including a season-high 452 yards in their last matchup with the Bears.

One reason for this offensive explosion has been the team’s effort to get Jordan Addison more involved. Questions arose when the second-year wideout posted a cryptic message on Instagram that said, “Free 3.” Addison later clarified that it was a motto he has had since college. Still, his involvement in the offense increased notably after the post.

Addison has scored six of his seven touchdowns during the win streak. Even more impressive is his yardage output, a better indicator of individual success. Addison caught eight passes for a season-high 162 yards and one touchdown against the Bears. Last Sunday, he hauled in eight passes for 133 yards and three touchdowns in Minnesota’s 42-21 drubbing of the Atlanta Falcons.

Still, there are areas on offense where the Vikings can improve upon their Week 12 victory over the Bears. Aaron Jones fumbled at Chicago’s one-yard line on Minnesota’s opening drive. Chicago also sold out to neutralize Justin Jefferson, holding him to only two catches for 27 yards.

Ironically, Eberflus’ absence could hurt the Bears on Monday night. While he was 14-32 as Chicago’s head coach, he was a capable defensive mind. He called plays for the Bears’ defense during his three seasons there. Will defensive coordinator Eric Washington, who began calling plays last week, try to eliminate Jefferson again at the expense of allowing the rest of the Vikings offense to flourish?

It may not matter. The 49ers racked up 319 yards of offense in the first half of their win over the Bears last week, and Chicago’s defense has been inconsistent all year while dealing with injuries. With Addison proving he can be lethal all over the field, the Bears might not feel comfortable selling out to stop Jefferson. Even T.J. Hockenson had seven catches for 114 yards in their last meeting.

However, their defense will be the key to Minnesota’s success this time. Chicago’s 398 yards represented their second-highest output of the season. While the Vikings sacked Caleb Williams three times, they allowed him to escape the pocket too often. He scrambled four times for significant yardage and extended plays, including a touchdown pass that cut Minnesota’s lead to 27-24 with 22 seconds left in regulation.

The defense broke down again after the ensuing onside kick ricocheted off tight end Johnny Mundt’s ankle, leading to a Bears recovery. With no timeouts and the ball at their own 43-yard line, Williams fired a 27-yard pass to D.J. Moore to set up the game-tying 48-yard field goal.

Pro Football Focus gave Williams a 74.8 grade that day, his third-best mark of the season. His 340 passing yards were also his second-highest total of the year. Can we expect this to continue? Or will he regress closer to his season average of 211.2 yards per game?

While Minnesota’s defense has allowed an average of 433.3 yards per game over the past three weeks, this matchup could be their chance to right the ship. Although they held the Bears to 78 rushing yards on 22 carries in Week 12, they allowed 154 rushing yards to the Arizona Cardinals and 158 to the Atlanta Falcons in subsequent games, keeping the defense on its heels.

Fortunately for Minnesota, the Bears haven’t had a sustainable run game this season. They’ve eclipsed 100 rushing yards twice during their six-game losing streak and rank 23rd in the league in rushing offense. Williams accounts for 29.4% of the team’s rushing yards. If the Vikings can keep him in the pocket, they can limit his play-extending ability and a significant portion of Chicago’s ground game.

Finally, it helps that the Vikings have more tape to study Brown’s tendencies as a play-caller. While the offense could only change so much from what Shane Waldron ran during the first 10 games, Brown’s play-calling has added a new layer. Last time, Minnesota had only one game to analyze. Now, they have four games’ worth of film.

Typically, familiarity with division rivals helps and hurts teams in equal measure, especially when the schedule forces them to meet twice within a few weeks. However, the rare coaching change during this span may give the Vikings a massive advantage this time.