Sam Darnold Cannot Lead the Vikings Into Temptation

In Ep. 2 of HBO’s all-access show on the New York Giants, college area scout Brendan Prophett notes that J.J. McCarthy could overrule plays at the line of scrimmage at Michigan, but his offensive line called the protections. Prophett also highlighted McCarthy’s youth, urging New York’s front office to “get a feel for his experience.”

If we’ve learned anything about McCarthy, it’s that he has much to learn. Kevin O’Connell’s system is complicated. His play calls are a mouthful. McCarthy’s footwork must match his receiver’s routes. The 21-year-old is going from Michigan’s run-heavy offense to playing for O’Connell, a former quarterback who only runs the ball to set up the pass.

In the third episode, we learned that the Giants budgeted $4 million for Sam Darnold. They knew they might lose Tyrod Taylor in free agency and considered signing the former third-overall pick to replace him. Taylor signed with the Jets, and the Giants brought in Drew Lock to back up Daniel Jones. The Minnesota Vikings signed Darnold to a one-year, $10 million bridge deal, allowing them to give McCarthy the runway to take over as their franchise quarterback.

Darnold’s job is to get the Vikings through the first seven games on their schedule. Minnesota starts the season on the road against the New York Giants, then plays the San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans at home before playing the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau and the New York Jets in London. Following the Week 6 bye, the Vikings play the Detroit Lions at home and the Los Angeles Rams on the road.

Theoretically, McCarthy could take over after that because Minnesota’s schedule gets much softer in the middle. They play the Indianapolis Colts at home in Week 9. After that, they have three on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennesse Titans, and Chicago Bears, followed by home games against the Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, and Chicago.

A three-game road trip may be daunting for a rookie quarterback, but Jacksonville and Nashville should be packed with Vikings fans looking to escape the November cold. Soldier Field will sell out if Caleb Williams looks like he’s turning Chicago’s fortunes around in his rookie year. However, nearly every first-year quarterback experiences growing pains.

McCarthy may also benefit from starting his career away from home. That way, he isn’t playing in front of an unruly crowd of over 65,000 people who could turn on him after a few disappointing drives.

Darnold’s job is to keep everyone engaged until the middle of the season. Pro Football Focus called signing Darnold Minnesota’s best move of the offseason. It’s less about Darnold, the third-overall pick in 2018, who no longer projects to be a franchise quarterback. It’s more about keeping McCarthy off the field until he’s ready.

The 27-year-old quarterback played for the San Francisco 49ers last year, and he should pick up O’Connell’s system after a year under Kyle Shanahan. He may play better than expected in Minnesota, given this is the best supporting cast he’s played with in his career. Fans may fall in love with the post-hype prospect, even if he doesn’t have the makeup to be a franchise quarterback, much like they did with Joshua Dobbs last year.

However, the worst-case scenario is that Darnold gets injured or plays poorly before McCarthy is ready to take the field. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports that the Vikings are prepared to start Darnold all season. That’s how long it may take for McCarthy to be ready for NFL action. But if the Vikings start 1-3, a distinct possibility given their schedule's difficulty, fans will call for his backup.

Nick Mullens will likely begin the year as Darnold’s backup on the active roster. Jaren Hall started two games last year and is in camp with the Vikings. However, Minnesota will only roster their fifth-round pick from last year if they feel McCarthy is ahead of schedule in his development. Otherwise, they’ll want Mullens as a stopgap to back up Darnold until McCarthy has mastered the offense.

Nobody will chant Mullens’ name if Darnold falters early in the season. They’ll want McCarthy. However, the Vikings must exercise prudence with their future quarterback. Darnold will have done his job if he gets Minnesota through the early part of its schedule with a .500 record. He must not lead Vikings fans into backup quarterback temptation and deliver them from the evils of playing a franchise quarterback too soon.