One ESPN Analyst Almost Perfectly Predicted How This Vikings Season Would Go

Bill Barnwell turned out to be clairvoyant about the Minnesota Vikings. Before the season started, he picked them to miss the playoffs, and J.J. McCarthy was a primary reason why. So were turnovers and their record in one-score games.

“Vikings fans are sick of hearing about their record in one-score games, but when you go from 9-0 to 4-8 then to 8-1 across such games in Kevin O'Connell's first three seasons in charge, it's going to be a significant part of the conversation,” he wrote in September.

“Can the team keep up what we saw last season? A thrilling defense led the league in turnovers, as the Vikings jumped from 19th in turnover rate to second. That's difficult to sustain, especially with Minnesota turning over a chunk of its secondary.”

Barnwell highlighted that the Vikings were the oldest team in football on a snap-weighted age basis. They added several starters in free agency to shore up the defense and protect McCarthy, but signing those players raised Minnesota’s relative age. The Vikings also only made three top-100 picks over the past two years, which meant they had an older core.

Still, McCarthy was a chief concern for Barnwell. The Vikings would be going from Sam Darnold, a 28-year-old quarterback who had thrown for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns, to McCarthy, a 22-year-old first-year starter. Much of Minnesota’s success hinged on McCarthy’s ability to run O’Connell’s complicated offense.

“The Vikings invested heavily along the line of scrimmage this offseason, and they probably won't need to lean on their quarterback as much as they did on early downs with Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins. But we just don't know whether McCarthy will be an upgrade on the passers who preceded him.”

Darnold had outplayed McCarthy until December, when the Vikings had already been eliminated from the playoffs. Cousins, 37, tore his ACL two years ago, and he hasn’t played well enough to justify the $180 million deal the Atlanta Falcons signed him to last season. He’s 9-10 in 19 starts with Atlanta, and has a lower passer rating (87.9) there than in Washington (93.7) or Minnesota (101.2).

Nobody regrets moving on from Cousins. Still, Darnold would have been a reliable stopgap on a franchise tag. The Vikings could have worked on McCarthy’s mechanics behind the scenes, then turned to him late in the season when he’d be facing three lousy NFC East defenses. Instead, O’Connell abandoned his effort to fix McCarthy’s throwing motion too late, and he’s playing well when Minnesota has already missed the playoffs.

Barnwell may have been too bullish on McCarthy, and he also missed the mark about what was wrong with the defense.

However, he was right about the secondary. The Indianapolis Colts signed Camryn Bynum away from the Vikings in free agency, leaving them with Harrison Smith, Theo Jackson, and Josh Metellus. Smith, 36, may retire next season, and Metellus is more of a hybrid safety-linebacker than a true safety. PFF ranks Jackson 46th out of 98 safeties, and Minnesota has given 2023 third-rounder Jay Ward more playing time over him recently.

Minnesota’s cornerback situation is also concerning. The Vikings signed Byron Murphy on a $66 million extension in the offseason, and PFF ranks him 93rd out of 112 corners. They also signed Isaiah Rodgers to a $15 million deal in the offseason. He’s had highs, like the Cincinnati Bengals game, but they have also played Fabian Moreau, 31, over him recently. Minnesota also signed Jeff Okudah as a reclamation project, but a concussion ended his season in Week 8.

While the secondary has been questionable, Minnesota’s defensive line talent has allowed Brian Flores to blitz like a maniac again. As a result, the defense is allowing only 307.9 yards per game, the ninth-fewest in the NFL. Jonathan Greenard remained an impact player until suffering a season-ending shoulder injury last week. Jalen Redmond has had a breakout season as a former UFL pickup, Andrew Van Ginkel is still “the Gink” when healthy, and Dallas Turner is coming into his own.

Minnesota has also generated only 14 turnovers this year, after 33 last season. However, that may be more a result of game flow. The Vikings have frequently played from behind, and their opponents are less likely to take risks with the ball when they’re leading. Minnesota’s only multi-turnover games have been blowout wins over the Bengals and Washington Commanders.

The Vikings are also 4-4 in one-score games, a negative indicator Barnwell cited in his preview piece. They’ve blown out Cincinnati and Washington. However, the Atlanta Falcons, Los Angeles Chargers, Green Bay Packers, and Seattle Seahawks have run up the score on them.

Most of Minnesota’s disappointing season comes down to how it handled the quarterback situation. McCarthy has had growing pains in his first season. Darnold and Daniel Jones left in free agency and had success elsewhere. Sam Howell didn’t work out as a backup plan, and Carson Wentz joined too late in the offseason to learn the offense and got injured.

Minnesota’s lost season seemingly came out of nowhere. However, to at least one keen observer, their flaws were evident in September and too much to overcome. The bigger question now is whether the Vikings can fix them this offseason. Much of their future success hinges on how McCarthy finishes out the season.