One Decision In 2022 Created A Butterfly Effect For Minnesota and Chicago

The Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears will face off at Soldier Field this Sunday, and their circumstances couldn’t be more different. With the two teams headed in seemingly opposite directions at the moment, it’s notable that as recently as 2022 they were in an almost identical spot, and a single decision may have altered the trajectory of the two franchises for years to come.

Minnesota is seeking its second 9-2 start in three seasons under Kevin O'Connell. Chicago is 4-6 but appears to be losing control of their season.

Sam Darnold once looked like a bust, but now he’s playing the best football of his NFL career. The Vikings have surrounded Darnold with skill players like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Aaron Jones. He also has O’Connell, one of the league’s best playcallers, in his headset on gamedays.

The Bears are 4-6 and are looking to break a four-game losing streak during which they have let two potential wins slip through their fingers. Quarterback Caleb Williams, the first-overall pick in last spring’s draft, hasn’t met expectations.

In Williams’ defense, the Bears haven’t given him the best support system. Chicago’s offensive line has been inconsistent. Receiver D.J. Moore has had to answer questions regarding his effort level. Last week, they fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, who was only nine games into his first season on the job.

Waldron may not be the only coach fired in Chicago this year. Head coach Matt Eberflus, who also handles playcalling duties on defense, has faced scrutiny in the aftermath of the Hail Maryland against the Washington Commanders.

On the play before that instant-classic Hail Mary, Eberflus intentionally gave Washington’s receivers plenty of cushion, allowing an easy completion to set up the game-winning pass. He ran out the clock against the Green Bay Packers last week and settled for a 46-yard field goal despite having one timeout left late in the fourth quarter. Green Bay blocked the kick, potentially delivering the final blow to a team with playoff aspirations heading into the season.

But how did we get to this moment where two head coaches, hired in the 2022 hiring cycle, are heading in opposite directions? Looking back, the decisions one of these teams made directly impacted the other. That resulted in a series of events that helped the Vikings land O'Connell, the crown jewel of the 2022 head coaching hires.

The 2021 Season Finale

On January 9, 2022, the Bears and Vikings met for one of the most inconsequential Week 18 games ever played. The 6-10 Bears were starting quarterback Andy Dalton, who was filling in for injured rookie first-round quarterback Justin Fields. The 7-9 Vikings were starting guys like receiver Ihmir Smith-Marsette and cornerback Parry Nickerson. Outside of the game’s small influence on draft odds, whatever happened on the field had little meaning.

Matt Nagy and Mike Zimmer had their share of success with their franchises but had each worn out their welcome by the end of 2021. Regardless of the final score, both teams fired their coach within 48 hours.

After trailing 14-3 at halftime, Minnesota’s offense exploded in the second half, leading them to a 31-17 victory. Jefferson came 17 yards short of breaking Randy Moss’ team single-season receiving record. Asked after the game whether he thought about getting Jefferson the ball more to help him break the record, Zimmer replied, “I don’t care about records. I care about wins.”

Zimmer and Nagy would be fired the next day, but they weren’t alone. The Vikings also fired Rick Spielman, who had been with the organization since 2006. And the Bears fired GM Ryan Pace. Both teams were starting over from the top down.

The General Manager Search

Both teams began exhaustive searches for their new general managers. After almost two weeks, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported that the Vikings were down to two finalists, requesting second interviews for Ryan Poles and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. Poles had spent the previous 13 seasons with the Kansas City Chiefs, working his way up to their executive director of player personnel in 2021.

Meanwhile, Adofo-Mensah got into football in 2013 after spending years on Wall Street. In 2013, he was the San Francisco 49ers’ manager of football research and development and remained with the organization through the 2019 season. Adofo-Mensah then spent the next two seasons as the Cleveland Browns’ vice president of football operations.

Poles turned down Minnesota’s second interview and took the Bears job. He was reportedly the Vikings' top choice, but they had to pivot. At the time, people believed he wanted more control of the roster. The Vikings were reluctant to do a complete rebuild. The following day, the Vikings hired Adofo-Mensah as their new general manager. Although the Vikings liked both general managers, hiring Adofo-Mensah set the team on an entirely different path than Poles would have taken them.

The Head Coaching Search

With their general managers in place, the Vikings and Bears began searching for their new head coaches. Minnesota officially interviewed 10 head coaches, including a last-minute meeting with then-Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh. He and Adofo-Mensah knew each other from their San Francisco days when Harbaugh’s head coaching tenure (2011-14) overlapped with Kwesi’s.

The Vikings ultimately hired O’Connell when their meeting with Harbaugh went sideways. O’Connell was fresh off a Super Bowl victory following two seasons as the Los Angeles Rams’ offensive coordinator. The New England Patriots had taken him in the third round of the 2008 draft. However, he was a career backup, retiring following the 2012 season.

O’Connell tried broadcasting following his five-year playing career before becoming Cleveland’s quarterback coach in 2015. He spent 2016 in San Francisco with the title “special projects,” overlapping with Adofo-Mensah. He then joined Washington as their quarterback coach in 2017. He was elevated to offensive coordinator in 2019 before taking the same job in LA.

Meanwhile, the Bears hired Eberflus, who had spent the previous four seasons as the Indianapolis Colts’ defensive coordinator. Other notable interviews they had for the job were Brian Flores and Brian Daboll, the latter of whom the New York Giants would eventually hire as their next head coach. Flores spent the 2022 season as the Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers coach. They never interviewed O’Connell, nor was there any report they requested one with him.

The 2022 and 2023 Bears

Poles began tearing down Chicago’s roster, trading players like edge rusher Khalil Mack and linebacker Roquan Smith within the calendar year. Aided by former Bears head coach Lovie Smith, Chicago secured the first-overall pick in the 2023 draft. They traded out of the spot with the Carolina Panthers, receiving a haul of picks but passing on quarterback C.J. Stroud.

The 2023 Bears season began with chaos. Defensive coordinator Alan Williams resigned before Week 2. Chicago also fired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy after the season. But they still finished 8-9 thanks to a strong performance by the defense in the second half of the season. Because they had Carolina’s pick from the previous spring, and the Panthers finished with a league-worst record of 2-15, the Bears again had the first-overall pick. They decided to move on from Fields when they had the opportunity to select Williams.

Many believed the NFC North would be among the league’s toughest divisions in 2024. The Detroit Lions almost made it to the Super Bowl last year, and Green Bay narrowly missed out on facing them in the NFC Championship. And the Bears had a fresh, new rookie taking over on an 8-9 hot team to end the 2023 season. Probably the NFC North team with the least amount of buzz headed into 2024 was the Vikings.

The 2022 and 2023 Vikings

The Vikings ran back most of their 2021 roster in 2022, exceeding expectations and winning the NFC North with a 13-4 record. However, they gave up the second-most yards in the league. Ultimately, they lost to the Giants in the Wild Card round, and Daboll ended up as the NFL’s Coach Of the Year. The Vikings fired defensive coordinator Ed Donatell later that week.

Looking for a replacement who was as aggressive on defense as he was on offense, O’Connell hired Flores as his new defensive coordinator. Turnovers and a season-ending Achilles injury to Kirk Cousins doomed Minnesota’s season, but they meaningfully improved on defense. The Vikings finished 13th in points allowed and 16th in yards allowed. Still, they missed the playoffs with a 7-10 record.

Following the season, the Vikings moved on from Cousins and longtime defensive end Danielle Hunter. Although the Vikings were eating dead cap allocated to the two players in 2024, they had freed up future cap space.

They signed Darnold as a bridge quarterback in 2024 and drafted J.J. McCarthy with the 10th-overall pick in the draft to be their quarterback of the future. The Vikings also signed Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard to replace Hunter and added linebacker Blake Cashman to man the middle of the defense. They signed veteran cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffin to bolster the secondary.

The 2024 Season and Beyond

The preseason pundits were right. The NFC North has been the best division in football through 11 weeks. No one in the NFL is playing better than the Lions. The 7-3 Packers are third in the division, with one loss coming when Minnesota beat them at Lambeau Field in Week 4. One of the Vikings' two losses came in Week 7 against the Lions when they lost on a last-minute field goal.

The 4-6 Bears are in fourth place and still have five games to play against the rest of the division. Rumor has it that Eberflus has lost the locker room, and players haven’t convincingly disputed them.

Chicago also traded Fields to the Steelers for a conditional sixth-round pick. He started the first six games of the season in Pittsburgh, leading them to a 4-2 record before Russell Wilson took over. Fields threw five touchdowns in his six starts and ran for another five.

Meanwhile, Williams hasn’t met expectations as the first-overall pick yet. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass during the four-game skid and has taken a league-worst 41 sacks. Fields’ success has made it harder for fans to accept Williams’ growing pains. Although his performance last Sunday against the Packers was his best outing in a month, it’s not ideal for Williams to adapt to a new coordinator in the middle of his rookie season.

Can he and the offense put together another solid offensive performance against Flores, the man the Bears passed on during their hiring process? Will their defense look more like the late 2023 iteration? Or will O’Connell, a candidate the Bears didn’t interview, further expose Eberflus’ defense, which is supposed to be his strength?

The two teams are heading in two different directions in 2024 and beyond. The Vikings believe they have the right young quarterback to pair with their young head coach. O’Connell has revived Darnold’s career, elevated Cousins’ play, and even won a game with Josh Dobbs five days after acquiring him. What can he do with a quarterback he can mold from Day 1?

Like in 2022, the Bears will enter the offseason with uncertainty at head coach one year after drafting a quarterback in the first round. Will they make the right hire? Or will they pass on qualified coaches again and find themselves in the same position again in three years?

Ultimately, Chicago's decision to hire Poles helped the Vikings hire the best coach available in 2022. O'Connell has found the balance between X's and O's and the human element in connecting and leading players and staff members throughout the organization. He may say that he prefers the "process" to results when it comes to football. Still, Vikings fans are pleased with the results through two-and-a-half seasons.