Nordo's Numbers: Week 17 vs. Green Bay

The Minnesota Vikings entered Week 17 with an easy equation: Win today and force a Week 18 game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field for the NFC North. The team that stood in their way? The Green Bay Packers, longtime rivals looking to try to play spoiler against their neighbors after suffering a loss to the Purple and Gold in Week 4 at Lambeau Field.

What ensued was nothing short of a thumping — at least for the first three quarters — as the Vikings thoroughly dominated the game to build a 27-10 lead. They allowed the Packers to get back into the game in the last six minutes. Still, they never had a single possession in the second half where they could take the lead, and the Vikings won 27-25.

Here are five numbers that break down this pivotal game.

16

Minnesota’s defense has recorded a turnover in all 16 games this season, tying the longest streak to begin a season in franchise history. The Vikings added to their takeaway streak on the game's first drive when Jerry Tillery punched the ball out of Josh Jacobs’ hands, leading to Cam Bynum's recovery and another choreographed celebration.

The Vikings have relied on their defense's ability to force turnovers all year. Much like on Green Bay’s first drive, it looked like their offense was pushing the ball, but all it takes is one moment for the defense to change the game's momentum. While some might call it luck, the defense having a nose for the ball and forcing turnovers in 16 consecutive games is no coincidence.

24

Jalen Nailor has a touchdown on 24% of his catches this season. After K.J. Osborn signed with the New England Patriots in free agency, there was a question about who could fill in as Minnesota’s WR3. Nailor’s 25 catches have been a little underwhelming, but his six touchdowns certainly have not been.

Nailor was a big part of the offensive plan early when Green Bay’s defense looked intent on zoning out Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and forcing the ball underneath.

After Minnesota’s offense pounded the ball on the ground, the deeper throws opened up. Sam Darnold hit Nailor for a 31-yard touchdown pass, the first pass of 30 or more yards Green Bay’s secondary allowed all year. While Jefferson wasn’t involved in the play, his gravity drawing three defenders in his zone opened up Nailor for the score.

12

After hitting Addison for an 18-yard score, Sam Darnold had his 12th multi-touchdown game, tying Kirk Cousins for a single-season franchise record. Darnold looked comfortable in the pocket almost all day. The offensive line set up shop and gave him time to work through his reads almost all game long.

The frosty skepticism that surrounded Darnold during the pre-season has melted away. While he has made mistakes, like his interception that opened the door for the Packers, the good has far outweighed the bad.

2017

The Vikings have swept the Packers for the first time since 2017. The funny thing about the Vikings-Packers rivalry is that no matter how good one team is or how superior they are over the other, they often still split games. Recently, the trend has been that the Vikings win a close one, and the Packers blow them out in the other matchup.

With so much being made of Green Bay's recent dominance and this game being almost even according to most Vegas lines, a win just gives more good vibes to the team as they depose another double-digit winner in the NFC.

72.3

Despite a late-game scare, Green Bay’s win probability index never dropped below 72.3% in the fourth quarter. In some ways, this game felt very similar to the Week 4 win against the Packers, where the team was dominant through the middle passage of the game but allowed Green Bay to come back.

KOC and Brian Flores need to get better in end-of-game scenarios. Allowing teams to sneak in at the end of the game will not be helpful in the playoffs. For Flores, it’s all about staying aggressive; he is not a playcaller who thrives in prevent defense. KOC must rely on the run sometimes instead of staying pass-happy at the end of games.