Nordo's Numbers: Week 12 vs. Chicago

The Minnesota Vikings beat the Chicago Bears 30-27 in overtime in a bizarre game way too close for comfort. Minnesota’s afternoon got off to an inauspicious start with Aaron Jones fumbling the ball at Chicago’s goal line and squandering a chance for an early lead. Despite possessing the ball for under 10 minutes in the first half, the offense could still take a 14-7 lead to halftime.

The Vikings mostly dominated the second half, yet a series of flabbergasting blunders saw them blow an 11-point lead in the final minute of the game. The Bears felt like they were carrying their momentum into overtime when they won the coin toss, but Minnesota’s defense held firm. Sam Darnold and Co. were able to methodically drive the ball down the field, setting up John Parker Romo for a chip shot for the win.

Here are the numbers to break down this deeply strange game:

9

Since the start of last season, the Minnesota Vikings have nine turnovers on their opening possessions, three more than any other team in that stretch. Minnesota’s offense looked like they were firing on all cylinders on the first drive on Sunday, getting the ball down to Chicago’s one-yard line until Mr. Simone Biles stripped Aaron Jones.

Fumbles in the red zone are uncharacteristic for Jones; it was just the second of his career. Still, Minnesota’s trend of first-possession turnovers is extremely concerning. The Vikings’ offense routinely lets opposing defenses off the hook and puts more pressure on themselves and the defense.

The Vikings have also turned the ball over four times in the red zone in the last four weeks, leaving points on the field.

3

Jordan Addison has three touchdown receptions in Minnesota’s last four matchups. This season has been frustrating for Addison. He looked so good in his rookie year but has missed time with injuries and struggled to find his role in the offense when healthy. Since the now infamous “Free 3” Instagram story, Addison has now seemed to find some of his chemistry with Sam Darnold.

It started when Darnold hit Addison on a 45-yard strike to put the Vikings at Chicago’s two-yard line. One play later, Darnold again linked up with his fellow USC alumni on his career-high 20th touchdown pass this season. On the first play after the half, Addison and Darnold were again able to connect for a 69-yard strike.

Despite all the national media’s adoration focused on Justin Jefferson — and deservedly so— Addison and Darnold were the story of the first half, where the Vikings only had the ball for 9:31 but led 17-10. Jefferson had just one grab all through the half, with 8:44 left to go in the second quarter. Addison finished the game with a career-high 162 yards.

27

The Vikings went 27 games without a second-half rushing touchdown, the second-longest drought of all time. This is one of those strange numbers that not many people keep track of or, frankly, even remember. However, in a small way it speaks to the issue the Vikings’ offense has had for the past three seasons in getting production from their running game.

While they have gotten more from Jones than they could have ever hoped for this season, there have been games where they needed him to do more in the second half. But it’s clearly not all Jones’ fault; the offense’s struggles to run the ball in the second half date back to the latter months of the 2022 season. The offense’s ability to chew the clock and rely on the rushing attack at the end of the season will be more important than ever.

99.9

According to ESPN's Win predictor, the Vikings had a 99.9% chance of winning the game with under a minute left. The offense managed to get an 11-point lead, which the Vikings squandered within half a minute, allowing the Bears to force overtime. It all started when the special teams unit allowed the Bears to get great field position and a massive momentum swing. Chicago's offense quickly punched the ball in and converted the two-point conversion to make it a three-point game.

With the new onside kick rules, you would expect the game to be all but over. Despite this, the special teams unit -- Johnny Mundt specifically -- bungled the onside opportunity, giving the Bears the ball back. After D.J. Moore’s 26-yard grab, the Bears drilled a 48-yard field goal to tie the game. Yes, the Vikings pulled out the victory, but they need significant improvement in situational football as they head toward the playoffs.

405

With the Bears and Matt Eberflus committed to taking away Justin Jefferson, Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Jones combined for 405* all-purpose yards.

Darnold has been criticized for hyper-fixating on Jefferson, which results in turnovers. Today, Darnold was able to spread the ball around and utilize all the weapons around him that are supposed to make his job easier. While Jefferson only totaled 27 yards and had a minimal impact on the game from a statistical perspective, the attention he drew from the secondary allowed the offense to open up and for everyone else to win their one-on-one matchups.

*An earlier post misstated the number of all-purpose yards Addison, Hockenson, and Jones had. We regret the error.