Making Sense Of the Vikings’ Strange No. 18 Draft Pick Odds

For months now, Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman has been the pick most intertwined with the Minnesota Vikings at No. 18. He fills a position of need, he’ll probably be available, and he’s good at football. Done! High fives all around, get him on the phone, send the card in. (Or not, Minnesota has been a bit laissez-faire about that in the past.)

But while it appears to be the most likely scenario, the NFL Draft is unpredictable, and Minnesota may face a completely different situation when its clock starts. There are a lot of ways the first round of the draft can go for the Vikings, and Vegas oddsmakers have some … interesting thoughts, to say the least.

Unsurprisingly, safety has the best odds for the Vikings’ first pick at +130, but after that, things get a bit more convoluted. The position with the second-best odds for Minnesota’s first-round selection is defensive line at +250. Of course, interior defensive line is a big need, and edge potentially could become a need if Rob Brzezinski gets an offer he can’t refuse for Jonathan Greenard. So while the position makes a ton of sense, the talent available at No. 18 doesn’t, so this might be Vegas’ way of hinting a trade-down is increasingly likely.

At No. 18, defensive tackles Peter Woods, Caleb Banks, Kayden McDonald, and more would theoretically be available. But a few of them would also likely still be available a bit further down the board, providing Minnesota with an easy decision to trade back and pick up another Day 2 pick. If Thieneman is off the board, not only do the odds of Minnesota taking another position go up, so too do their odds of a trade-down. The Vikings would have no reason to reach for any one of the defensive tackles, or edges for that matter, at 18.

Now, here’s where things get a bit harder to decipher. The next best odds for Minnesota’s first pick, at +350, is cornerback. There’s been very little smoke or buzz of the Vikings going corner here outside of the occasional Avieon Terrell pick, or the dream that Jermod McCoy’s medicals scare teams away. And most of the $37 Minnesota doled out in free agency went to former Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback James Pierre.

Not to mention, the Vikings haven’t selected a cornerback higher than round three since Brian Flores came to Minnesota. So what’s the thought here? Well, believe it or not, players typically play past their rookie seasons, and Minnesota’s future at corner is a bit nebulous. Isaiah Rodgers is a free agent after the season, and Byron Murphy feels like a potential cut candidate if 2026 goes sideways, so cornerback could be a more urgent need than it appears at first glance.

The other factor here is that the draft is very top-heavy at cornerback. There are as many as five or six potential first-round players at the position, and Minnesota may be tempted to be opportunistic. It wouldn’t be too far-fetched to think that Terrell, McCoy, or Chris Johnson could beat out Pierre for CB3 in Year 1.

Offensive line (+550), tight end (+850), and wide receiver (+1800) round out the last of the most realistic positions (unless you want to shoot your shot with kicker/punter/longsnapper at +20000). Receiver is the surprising one here, especially landing behind offensive line and tight end.

The Vikings have a need at center, but there isn’t one even close to being worth taking at No. 18. They also need a tight end in 2027 and beyond. But besides Oregon’s Kenyon Sadiq, who could go much higher, there’s not much there for the taking, making receivers’ low odds somewhat confusing.

Unlike center or tight end, where multiple top-end prospects simply don’t exist in 2026, receiver has several Round 1 talents who could be ripe for the picking at No. 18. Much like cornerback, receiver isn’t a glaring need in 2026, and they could use that pick to fill a bigger hole elsewhere. But with Jordan Addison's uncertain future and WR3 still a concern, a first-round receiver isn’t too hard to imagine.

Denzel Boston, KC Concepcion, and Omar Cooper Jr. are all realistic picks in the mid-to-late first, and the Vikings might even be able to have their pick of the lot if they wanted. The reason the Vikings may opt to wait is that receiver looks like a deep position in this draft, and they could still land a great talent with a Day 2 selection. Still, while it’s not the most likely option in the first round, it feels like oddsmakers are underestimating Minnesota’s desperation to see literally any quarterback succeed in 2026.

Thieneman is probably the pick, unless a team snatches him up early. In that event, any one of about five different positions could be in the conversation either at No. 18 or in a trade-down. Buckle up, the draft is here.