Jonathan Mingo Is the Project WR Minnesota Should Pursue

After releasing long-time starter Adam Thielen before free agency, the Minnesota Vikings have done almost nothing to bolster the wide receiver room. They have signed Brandon Powell, formerly of the Los Angeles Rams, to a modest contract. But he profiles as a returner and potential gadget player rather than a true starter. With Thielen gone, the Vikings have very little depth after superstar Justin Jefferson and fourth-year player K.J. Osborn.

Osborn played 873 snaps last year, third on the team among receivers. He is expected to step into the No. 2 role (Thielen played 1,042 snaps last year), but that leaves a big void for the team at WR3. The Vikings have signaled a shift to heavier personnel by trading for T.J. Hockenson midseason, signing Josh Oliver to a three-year, $21 million contract, and extending C.J. Ham.

Many have suggested this means Kevin O'Connell intends move away from his McVay roots and use an approach more similar to San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. The Vikings were top five in 11 personnel (3 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE) usage in 2022, while the Niners were 30th. Despite almost being last in the NFL in usage, the 49ers still used 11 personnel more than any other package -- 42% of the time, for 442 snaps on the season. Therefore, even if the Vikings shift heavily into that strategy, there is still significant need for a WR3 on the roster.

While WR3 is a big need for the team, there are other needs competing for attention. The Vikings have major question marks at CB2 and CB3 behind Byron Murphy. They lack a strong pass rusher on the interior of the defensive line. Kirk Cousins' contract expires at the end of the 2023 season, and there is rampant speculation that the team may use their first-round pick to get a QB. Edge rusher can be considered a need. Danielle Hunter and Marcus Davenport's contracts expire after this season, and Za'Darius Smith's cap hit is scheduled to balloon to over $21 million in 2024.

With limited resources, it would make sense for the Vikings to address their WR need later in the draft. Ole Miss' Jonathan Mingo is a prospect I really like in the middle rounds. He is currently rated 128th on Arif Hasan's consensus board.

Athleticism

As a prospect, Mingo had great size and athletic testing. He measured in at 6'1 3/4" and an impressive 220 lbs., but still jumped 39.5" and ran a 4.46-second 40-yard dash. Importantly for the Vikings, he ran a 1.52-second 10-yard split, which is in the 94th percentile. These numbers make him one of the most athletic WR prospects of all time per RAS:

Where he wins

Ole Miss asked Mingo to play a versatile role where he lined up as the outside receiver, in the slot, and as an in-line TE. Interestingly, in 2022, Mingo started out the year primarily playing outside receiver (he played 85% of his snaps at outside WR from Weeks 1-7) before being asked to move inside to the slot and as an in-line tight end after TE Michael Triggs got hurt. In the final four games of the regular season, he played only 25 of his 343 snaps (7.3%) on the outside. They even used Mingo in the backfield on a handful of snaps.

Mingo's size and speed make him a viable deep threat. He shows the ability to win against press coverage at the line of scrimmage and can stack cornerbacks to create vertical separation. On the play below, Mingo is at the bottom of the screen, going up against LSU CB Mekhi Garner, another prospect in this year's draft. He uses a hesitation step before a hard step outside to get Garner to open his hips to the outside, before cutting hard inside and turning vertical. He finishes with an impressive over the shoulder catch.

[video width=1280" height="720" mp4="https://zonecoverage.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/stacks-CB-and-makes-difficult-catch.mp4]

This type of rep will translate to the next level not only in the vertical phase of the game but also on a potential slant. Mingo beat a CB that was lined up with inside leverage on an in-breaking release. That is not easy to do.

Hands are another positive of Mingo's game. He consistently uses the correct hands technique to address the football, and made a number of catches outside of his frame that show a wide catch radius. On the play below, Mingo starts in the slot at the top of the screen and runs a deep out route. His vertical stem and the route combination create separation, but the real impressive part of the play is his smooth adjustment to catch a pass that is thrown low and behind him.

[video width=1280" height="720" mp4="https://zonecoverage.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/vertical-attack-to-switch-release-and-good-adjustment-to-underthrown-ball.mp4]

Mingo also shows a good penchant for spectacular catches. On the play below, he starts at the bottom of the screen and does a good job winning vertically and stacking the CB, but the ball is once again underthrown. That forces to him to work back through the CB to catch the ball, and he makes a contested catch on the back of the CB's helmet.

[video width=1280" height="720" mp4="https://zonecoverage.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Stack-CB-vs-press-and-adjust-to-underthrown-ball.mp4]

Mingo has also shown the ability to find holes in zones. On the play below, he starts up at the top of the screen, successfully wrapping around a dropping linebacker and in front of a driving safety to make the catch.

[video width=1280" height="720" mp4="https://zonecoverage.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Catch-in-between-dropping-LB-and-safety.mp4]

He has shown flashes of dynamic athleticism after the catch. Ole Miss used him often on screens and other short routes to get him in space. Mingo showed an understanding of the goal of the play on third down, often going straight into contact but picking up a first down in the process. On other plays, he got to show off the ability to make opponents miss. The play below was one of his best reps, as he catches a short pass and makes one player miss before lowering his pads into contact and dragging them a few yards for a first down.

[video width=1280" height="720" mp4="https://zonecoverage.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Best-after-catch-rep.mp4]

Overall, Mingo had mixed success after the catch. He was often able to make the first player miss but often ended up getting tackled by direct wraps. Mingo will not become a dynamo after the catch at the next level like Deebo Samuel is, but his size and agility make his after the catch play above average for a receiver.

Because he was asked to play as a slot close to the line and a wing tight end quite often as the year came to a close, Mingo has a number of reps where he was given difficult blocking assignments for a wide receiver. He was more than up to the task, and really impressed as a blocker, showing the ability to accurately target defenders, understanding of his assignment and the direction he needed to seal, and the ability to deliver a strong punch with good technique. Here is one of his most impressive reps as a blocker against Alabama, where he climbs to the second level, stalemates a linebacker until an offensive lineman can take over, and then disengages to move to seal off another linebacker.

[video width=1280" height="720" mp4="https://zonecoverage.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Inline-run-blocking.mp4]

Blocking is a critical ability for Vikings receivers because of the way O'Connell has designed the run game. He often asks wide receivers to take splits that are tight to the line of scrimmage and therefore asks them to block linebackers and even edge rushers in the run game. While these blocks won't typically be the point of attack, they are an important part of the play that smaller WRs would find difficult to execute. Another benefit of Mingo's blocking in college was that it allowed him to be used on double moves. He could feign stalk blocking and then accelerate really quickly into a deep route.

Below is a play from the Vikings' season, where Osborn and Thielen are asked to double team edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux before Osborn climbs to the DB on the second level. I have no concerns about Mingo if he's asked to execute this type of block:

[video width=1920" height="1080" mp4="https://zonecoverage.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Dalvin-run-9-with-Lawrence-cameo.mp4]

Areas for Improvement

Mingo is a strong athletic talent, but he lacks refinement as a route runner at this stage of his career. Part of the issue is the offense he played in at Ole Miss, which had him run mostly nine routes, posts, deep overs, routes to the flat, and quick curls. Mingo does not often create separation when asked to make explosive cuts in his routes. Check out the deep over route below. Mingo shows a vertical step, but he's unable to explode out of the cut to create real separation from the DB, who quickly gets back in position after the cut.

[video width=1280" height="720" mp4="https://zonecoverage.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/lack-of-separation-on-over.mp4]

I showed a rep of Mingo winning against press above, but he didn't do so on a consistent basis. On the play below, he tries to use a hesitation release and is unable to explode past the corner after hand fighting, leading to getting himself pinned to the sideline.

[video width=1280" height="720" mp4="https://zonecoverage.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Unable-to-create-vertical-separation.mp4]

Agility is probably never going to be Mingo's strong suit. At 220 lbs., he does not turn as quickly as smaller athletes. It also shows up in his ability to stop, where he understands the technique of sinking his hips, but takes a number of steps to stop. On the play below, he starts in the slot at the bottom of the screen and is running a deep curl.

[video width=1280" height="720" mp4="https://zonecoverage.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/could-probably-stop-quicker.mp4]

Finally, while his hands technique is good, he was not always consistent catching the football. Per PFF, he had an above average drop rate at 7.1% and ranked in the bottom third among FBS receivers with 80-plus targets with a 41.2 contested catch rate. This is something I believe can be improved on Mingo shows correct technique, and the drops I saw were focus drops. Those are easier to correct than drops due to lapses in technique.

An example of a failed contested catch is shown in the play below. Mingo gets direct contact to his back and cannot make the catch through contact, despite having good hands technique by addressing the ball away from his frame.

[video width=1280" height="720" mp4="https://zonecoverage.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Good-hands-technique-but-unable-to-sustain-hit-on-drop.mp4]

Mingo's testing numbers indicate that there is more to be unlocked. His lack of refinement is the reason he's currently projected to be a Day 3 pick rather than a first-round player. The Vikings have one of the best WR coaches in the NFL with Keenan McCardell, and taking Mingo would indicate they believe they can improve his game.

Conclusion

Mingo is an interesting mid-round option for the Vikings in the upcoming draft as they look to fill their WR3 need. He's a player with incredible tools and good size but also could be able to see the field right away because he is a quality blocker, can win deep with his speed, and has good catch technique.

The Vikings need a deep threat and ask WRs to contribute with difficult blocking assignments in the run game. Mingo has the frame to hold up in the NFL, which is a breath of fresh air in a small receiver class. While Mingo has a lot to learn as a WR, he shows flashes of performing all of the different techniques he needs to improve on at the NFL level. With strong work ethic and good coaching, hopefully he will be able to turn those question marks into strengths and become a complete WR.