Two years ago, the Minnesota Twins were 45-46 and coming off a 15-2 loss to the Baltimore Orioles heading into the All-Star Break. Sonny Gray and Pablo López were headed to Seattle for the All-Star Game, but Ryan stayed home.
Ryan and Jhoan Durán were deserving All-Stars. Still, it’s hard for a sub-.500 team to get three players in, even though the Twins led the AL Central for most of the first half. Ryan had a 3.70 ERA in 18 starts heading into the All-Star Break. He had held opposing batters to .222/.258/.378 slash line and averaged 1.009 walks or hits per inning (WHIP).
After the 15-2 loss to Baltimore, a reporter asked Ryan if he was disappointed that he didn’t make the All-Star Game.
“Sure,” Ryan said after a long pause. “Yeah.”
A different reporter posed a similar question to Ryan after he gave up two earned runs and struck out eight in six innings against the Tampa Bay Rays. Ryan has a 2.76 ERA in 104.1 innings pitched this season.
“I mean, another year [missing the All-Star team],” he said. “But at the same time, it’s not based on stats, so it is what it is. They’ll make their decisions how they do.”
Ryan didn’t elaborate on what he meant when he said the voting wasn’t based on stats. However, every team gets an All-Star representative, and Ryan’s numbers are All-Star worthy.
Similar to 2023, the Twins have three deserving All-Stars, but it’s hard for a sub-.500 team to get more than two. Ryan is holding opposing hitters to a .188/.251/.328 slash line has a 152 ERA+. Byron Buxton is a deserving All-Star after hitting .268/.333/.536 with 19 homers in the first half. But so are Ryan and Durán, who has 13 saves and a 1.56 ERA (270 ERA+).
“Joe's, in my mind, clearly had another All-Star first half, and he takes a ton of pride in what he does,” said Rocco Baldelli, who also vouched for Durán.
“[Ryan would] totally love to be out there and pitching in an All-Star game and just being acknowledged as one of the best pitchers in the game because he is. It's unusual for one of the best pitchers of the game to just not get that acknowledgment.”
Unlike in 2023, Buxton has returned to All-Star form. He hit .207/.294/.731 as a designated hitter that season, a year after making his first All-Star team. Buxton is heading back to the All-Star Game this season, but the Twins have mostly squandered his efforts.
Buxton hit .254/.286/.475 with six homers in his first 30 games, but the Twins went 11-19. Minnesota’s offense wasted a strong start from its pitching staff before Pablo López injured his shoulder. They started 7-15 before going on a 13-game win streak, then have gone 17-27 since.
The Twins didn’t take advantage of strong pitching early in the season. They squandered their 13-game win streak, which elevated their record to 26-20.
Minnesota’s pitching staff has fallen off after López’s injury. Bailey Ober had a 9.00 ERA in June after finishing May with a 2.76 ERA. Zebby Matthews got hurt, and David Festa and Simeon Woods Richardson are still acclimating to the majors.
However, Ryan has been the stalwart in the rotation. He’s stepped up in López’s absence as the starters around him have faltered. Ryan has been a stabilizing force for a spiraling team, a steadying presence in an inconsistent season. Ironically, he’d probably be an All-Star on a more consistent team.
“I will see what the next week looks like and how this shakes out for him because I've got to believe that he would be some kind of strong consideration one way or the other,” said Baldelli. “But in my mind and my heart, the guy's an All-Star, and I think he should get that acknowledgment.”
Ryan tailed off in the second half of 2023. Opposing hitters slashed .294/.347/.588 off him after the All-Star Break, and he finished with a career-low 97 ERA+. Still, Ryan is building an All-Star resume. He had a 110 ERA+ in 2022 and a 116 ERA+ last year. This season, he has a 152 ERA+, meaning he’s 52% better than the average pitcher.
However, winning teams tend to have more All-Stars, even if Ryan is deserving. He’s pitching on Saturday, meaning it would be hard for him to make the All-Star Game as an alternate because he’s unlikely to pitch in it.
It feels unfair that Ryan has a career 10.3 wins above replacement (WAR) and likely won’t make the All-Star team before age 30. Still, that’s the nature of a player on a losing team in a game with arcane rules where fans don’t get to vote on pitchers.
“I really haven’t dove into the stats too much,” Ryan said. “I see the stats on the board, [but] I haven’t really gone into it too deep.”
Ryan highlighted WAR, innings pitched, strikeouts, and WHIP as instructive statistics. He has generated 3.9 WAR this year, fifth-best in the majors. His 0.891 WHIP is fourth-best. However, Ryan doesn’t rank among the league’s top 10 in innings pitched or strikeouts.
Ironically, the Twins may be hoping history repeats itself this year. Minnesota needed to reset after the All-Star Break in 2023 and only finished with 87 wins. Still, they put it together when it mattered most. Royce Lewis hit four home runs in the playoffs, López pitched a gem in Houston, and the Twins won their first playoff series since 2002.
For that to happen, Ryan must pitch like an All-Star in the second half.
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