J.J. McCarthy's Next Step Is To Get Justin Jefferson Going

J.J. McCarthy has shown growth over the last two weeks, giving Minnesota Vikings fans a glimpse of what they expected heading into the 2025 season. Against the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys combined, he completed 31 of 47 passes for 413 yards, throwing five touchdowns and running another in.

His lone pick came on his first pass attempt of last Sunday’s game against Dallas. However, he shook it off for the rest of the night and didn’t let his mistakes compound. McCarthy didn’t take any sacks, the second time he’s done so over his last four starts.

McCarthy has been productive, and almost just as importantly, he is playing confidently. He doesn’t appear to be overthinking his mechanics every time he drops back. Instead, he’s throwing with decisiveness. He did the Griddy as he ran in a one-yard touchdown against the Cowboys, even though Kevin O’Connell had asked him not to celebrate before scoring.

Consistency is key over the final three games. McCarthy needs to continue building on what he’s done and show he hasn’t only found success because he’s played against two poor pass defenses.

He also needs to show that he can get Justin Jefferson involved.

Despite McCarthy’s recent improvement, Jefferson has been quiet. He has caught only four passes for 33 yards on four targets. And it wasn’t any better three weeks ago, when rookie Max Brosmer found Jefferson only twice for four yards, both career lows.

Jefferson is sitting at 832 yards and two touchdowns with three weeks to play. He’s in jeopardy of falling short of the 1,000-yard threshold for the first time in his six-year career. Jefferson only needs to average 56 yards per game to get there, but he’s only averaging 43.8 yards in McCarthy’s eight starts.

In five games with Carson Wentz under center, Jefferson averaged 95.4 yards, about on par with his NFL-record 96.5 receiving yards per game average when he came into the season. His 477 yards in that span accounted for 57.3% of his total yards this season.

It would be easy to say that there will be a concerted effort by everyone involved to get Jefferson to 1,000 yards by season’s end. But he’s been the central part of the offense ever since Kevin O’Connell arrived in 2022. Jefferson even caught 196 passes for 3,016 yards in his first two seasons under Mike Zimmer, who never felt the need to pad a player’s stats.

That means Jefferson’s quest for 1,000 yards will reflect more on McCarthy than on Jefferson. The quarterback has played only eight NFL games and is still trying to acclimate to the speed of defenses while learning O’Connell’s system. Further complicating matters has been his inability to stay healthy. He has missed six games due to injuries.

It’s not as though McCarthy is ignoring Jefferson. He has 12 targets, and a three-yard touchdown pass was nullified by a penalty on Sunday against the Cowboys. Jefferson also dropped a fairly routine catch in the end zone. And the interception on McCarthy’s first pass was intended for Jefferson, too. Although it wouldn’t have been a huge gain, it could have built early chemistry.

Still, the looseness and confidence McCarthy has shown when targeting everyone else have been noticeably absent when throwing to No. 18. On Sunday, McCarthy went 13 of 16 for 228 yards and two touchdowns when targeting other receivers, good for a perfect passer rating. When targeting Jefferson, he was two of eight for 22 yards with one interception, resulting in a 0.0 passer rating.

That doesn’t mean McCarthy can’t turn it around. He’s finding more comfort throwing to players like T.J. Hockenson, who has caught seven passes for 58 yards and a touchdown the past two weeks. Jordan Addison has six catches for 128 yards in the past two weeks, including a 58-yard bomb from McCarthy against the Cowboys.

Fortunately, the New York Giants present another favorable matchup for Minnesota’s offense this Sunday. The Giants have the league's 30th-ranked defense. They are 23rd against the pass and have allowed at least 300 yards to all but one opponent this season. The Giants have lost all four games since firing Brian Daboll.

That gives McCarthy and Jefferson a good opportunity to bite off a huge chunk of the 168 yards needed to get to 1,000 yards. Doing so would show that McCarthy is capable of having the on-field connection that is needed with the league’s best receiver.

Failing to do so — even if the rest of the offense continues to produce — could suggest McCarthy isn’t yet capable of fully operating O’Connell’s system. The offense is built around Jefferson, and an inability to consistently get him involved would indicate McCarthy still has work to do.