Is Minnesota's Bullpen Depth Already Being Tested?

The Minnesota Twins had largely avoided injuries at the start of spring training. Sure, three of their top 10 prospects, Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Marco Raya, had suffered setbacks from getting game action early in camp. But their injuries were only setbacks that wouldn’t shut them down before the start of the regular season.

However, that all changed this week. Matt Canterino has an extensive injury history and hasn’t pitched since July 2022. He is out for the foreseeable future after he suffered a shoulder strain on his throwing arm.

Then, on Wednesday, reliever Justin Topa exited his outing early in a game against the Baltimore Orioles. He was experiencing tightness in his right shoulder, and his sweeper velocity dipped below 80 MPH.

According to the Minnesota Star Tribune’s Bobby Nightengale, the Twins consider Topa's injury a day-to-day thing. However, Topa has an extensive injury history. He missed almost all of 2024 due to left patellar tendinitis in his knee and a shoulder sprain. The shoulder tightness could be just that, and Topa will be good after a few days' rest, or he may be looking at an extended time on the injured list.

So, is it time to panic about bullpen depth with two of the most injury-prone relievers in the Twins system already getting hurt?

No. Far from it.

Canterino was going to start the season in the minors regardless of any setbacks. Topa still has one minor league option remaining and was battling to be a part of the Opening Day bullpen. Even if Topa is healthy, Minnesota’s front office may use his option to start the season and have him in the minors as the first man up if another player gets hurt.

Excluding Topa, there are still nine guys in Twins camp slated for eight bullpen spots and eight relievers in camp as non-roster invitees. Five of these bullpen spots are almost locked in with Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Cole Sands, and Danny Coulombe, the lone lefty in the pen.

Four relievers are also battling for those other three spots: Jorge Alcala, Eiberson Castellano, Michael Tonkin, and Louie Varland. If Topa starts the season on the shelf, it leaves only one of these four, rather than two, to have to start their season at St. Paul. Tonkin is the exception because he’s out of minor-league options.

In his first four appearances, Varland looks like the front-runner to make it on the Opening Day roster. He’s thrown four scoreless outings so far this spring, allowed only four hits (.188 opponents average), struck out four, and has zero walks. Alcala has also looked sharp in his first two outings this spring, allowing no runs, no hits, a walk, and two strikeouts in two quick innings.

If the Twins' front office decided who to send down in this group based solely on spring performance, they’d send Castellano down. He’s posted an ERA of 6.00 in only three innings of work, allowing a couple of walks and two runs on a two-run home run.

However, if the Twins send Castellano to the minors to start 2025, they would have to either send him back to the Philadelphia Phillies or trade another minor leaguer to keep their Rule-5 pick.

Fortunately for Castellano, the decision-making process won’t simply be based on performance, especially this early in camp. The Twins are still three full weeks away from Opening Day in St. Louis. While no one wants another player to go down with an injury, history has shown that it isn’t uncommon for three or more players to face some setback with their health before Opening Day.

Three weeks is enough time for one of the non-roster pitchers to also make a case for themselves. Randy Dobnak made his first outing in camp on Tuesday against the Atlanta Braves and threw three scoreless frames while striking out five hitters. Alex Speas slacks command occasionally but can still throw over 100 MPH and also has three scoreless appearances while allowing only two walks and two strikeouts.

Scott Blewett provided some stability in Minnesota’s bullpen during last season’s 12-27 collapse. He has also looked sharp in several outings. Plenty of guys can provide cushion for two relievers going down early in camp. There’s no need to panic about their injuries or setbacks this early.

Over the last three seasons, the Twins have had 29 to 36 pitchers on their roster to complete a 162-game season. While they’d like to lower the number of pitchers used from 32 in 2024, they will still have more pitchers on the team than the 13 arms on the roster to start the season.