Is 11 Still the Vikings’ Magic Number?

Kirk Cousins was sure he had scored. With 50 seconds left in the Minnesota Vikings’ Week 10 game in Buffalo, Cousins dove left of center and fell near the goal line. “I think I got in,” he told Kevin O’Connell as he stood beside him on the sideline. The quarterback and coach looked up at the big screen as the officials replayed Cousins’s quarterback sneak.

“Did you call that on your own?” O’Connell asked Cousins.

“Yeah,” confirmed Cousins.

“I was gonna call timeout, man,” O’Connell informed Cousins.

“Oh. Okay, I didn’t hear you,” Cousins responded.

“That’s my fault.”

Netflix mic’d up Cousins and O’Connell for the Buffalo Bills game to use for their Quarterback documentary, which they ran in the offseason. It showed how Cousins and O’Connell interacted in a tense moment, one of many in a 13-4 season where they went 11-1 in one-score games. Buffalo led the Vikings 27-23 with less than a minute to go. O’Connell wasn’t thrilled that Cousins called the quarterback sneak on his own, but he chose to instruct rather than scold his veteran signal-caller.

After seeing the replay a few times on the jumbotron, O’Connell confirmed what everyone knew. “I don’t think you got in, brother,” he told Cousins.

“In that situation, you can go over the top.”

“Yeah, I know. I know,” Cousins confirmed.

The documentary then cut to Cousins speaking directly to the camera, saying he made “a pretty critical error.” Back on the field, O’Connell said, “I could have given you a better formation.”

“I got you,” Cousins responded. “Okay.”

O’Connell looked him in the eyes and said, “You know, you just gotta let me help you, okay?”

Cousins responded affirmatively.

The Vikings won 13 games last year. Cousins threw for 4,547 yards; Justin Jefferson had 1809 receiving. Minnesota’s defense ranked 31st in yards allowed. But the number 11 defined their season. The Vikings were 11-0 in one-score games until the playoffs, when they lost to the underdog New York Giants by seven points. That number has divided NFL pundits nationwide as they predict how Minnesota’s season will go.

VegasInsider has Minnesota’s over-under at 8.5 games. They have the Detroit Lions at 9.5 and the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears at 7.5. Interestingly, though, ESPN’s metrics favor Detroit in the NFC North, giving them a 43% chance to win the division. The Worldwide Leader has the Vikings at 29% and favors Chicago (16%) over Green Bay (12%). Still, many pundits believe the Packers will reclaim the division in Jordan Love’s first year.

“I’m going under on [8.5],” Bill Simmons told Cousin Sal on his annual NFC over/under podcast. Sal Iacono is Jimmy Kimmel’s cousin — hence the nickname — and met Simmons working on Kimmel’s eponymous show. They’ve done a preview over/under win total podcast for years, and Cousins Sal seemed particularly surprised that Simmons had the Vikings going 7-10.

“Now, the big number that jumps out at everyone, they were 11-0 in one-score games, right?” he asked Simmons. “Can’t they be 7-4 in one-score games and win nine games this year? Why is that so hard?”

Simmons said he doesn’t see the talent on Minnesota’s roster. Cousin Sal pushed back, saying the Vikings have Jefferson, Christian Darrisaw, and Brian Flores coming in as the defensive coordinator. Furthermore, he believes Alexander Mattison can replace Dalvin Cook, Byron Murphy will take over for Patrick Peterson, and Jordan Addison will replace Adam Thielen.

“I think they win 11 games,” Cousin Sal concluded. “They win this division. That signing of Danielle Hunter makes me think, ‘Alright, they’re serious about this team.’ Everybody’s sleeping on them. They’re going 11-6.”

Conversely, Simmons has the Packers winning 11 games and taking the division. It’s not about Love so much as the team around him. “[Love is] fine,” Simmons concluded.

It’s not just Simmons jumping on the Packers bandwagon. The NFL Network’s Kyle Brandt is a huge Cousins supporter. But the Good Morning Football host has the Packers winning the division, and he doesn’t think the Vikings will make the playoffs.

“I almost fell off my chair earlier when Kyle Brandt didn't have the Vikings in the postseason,” Bradt’s co-host Jamie Erdhal told KFAN’s Paul Allen on Tuesday.

Erdahl grew up in Bloomington and is still in on the Vikings.

On Wednesday, Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio told Paul Allen he’s all-in on the Packers.

Ultimately, it comes down to the No. 11.

Like many other NFL teams, Minnesota’s players and coaches will tell you that that’s just noise. They believe in the culture that they’ve built and that late-game wins aren’t a coincidence. The Vikings practice late-game situations and manufacture pressure during the week, so the players are ready for it on Sundays.

Ultimately, all that matters is what shows up on tape. Last year, the Vikings won 11 one-score games in the regular season and lost one in the playoffs. They also won one game as an underdog and lost one as a favorite. Vegas had them beating the Giants in Round 1, but Brian Daboll, Daniel Jones, and Co. upset them in Minneapolis.

Still, Netflix’s Quarterback documentary showed why they won so many one-score games. O’Connell could have flipped out at Cousins for calling his own quarterback sneak. Cousins could have brushed him off and slinked into the morass of players on the sideline. But instead of admonishing Cousins for going rogue, O’Connell reminded him that he’s there to help. The Bills tied the game, sending it to overtime. But Cousins led the game-winning drive in the most memorable of Minnesota’s one-score victories last year.