How Much Risk Tolerance Should the Twins Have At the Trade Deadline?

Unlike for people at school or work, deadlines in sports are exciting times. Whether they are dates that a player needs to have their contract picked up or renewed or when trade offers have to be agreed upon, they create peripheral entertainment away from the field. Come August 1st, the MLB may look different than the one we’ve grown used to in the past three months.

The Minnesota Twins engaged in last year’s festivities when they acquired Tyler Mahle from the Cincinnati Reds for Spencer Steer, Steve Hajjar, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Met initially with sweet delight, that trade has since soured. Steer and Encarnacion-Strand have since reached the major leagues, with Steer already having 118 wRC+. Of course, Mahle hasn’t pitched since April 27th, and has long been ruled out after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May. It’s fair to feel irritated thinking of what life could have been like with Steer and Encarnacion-Strand in Minnesota navy rather than Cincinnati red. It’s equally fair to question any potential moves the Twins make this trade deadline.

The Twins lead the Cleveland Guardians by three games in the AL Central. As is natural when Minnesota is in playoff contention, fans and the media want the Twins to make some sort of swap.

There’s not exactly a shortage of selling teams this year. However, three of the teams Yahoo identified are in the AL Central: the Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers, and Chicago White Sox. Therefore, the Washington Nationals, Colorado Rockies, and Oakland Athletics are Minnesota’s only realistic trade partners. Taking inventory of each of those squads is trivial, and there are few difference-making players. (The Rockies sent reliever Pierce Johnson to Atlanta to make it more scarce).

Washington’s Lane Thomas and Jeimer Candelario are solid players, both of whom are having mini-breakouts. Thomas began 2023 with a more disciplined approach at the plate, though he’s fallen back into an aggressive nature with poor swing decisions (see below). He had a power surge in May and June when he slugged 14 home runs, but he’s been an average power hitter for his whole career. It’d be one thing if Thomas had the bat speed of someone like Teoscar Hernandez or Tyler O’Neill, hitters that are aggressive but have enough power to make it work.

Candelario is a surprising fourth in WAR among third basemen. He had issues against fastballs last season, which plummeted his value. Now that he’s back to 2020-21 type production against those pitches, he looks like an intriguing player again. The thing is that the Twins shouldn’t risk assets on a player who just broke out. He’s still the same low 20s K%, sub 10 BB%, slightly above-average power, and slightly below-average contact hitter he’s always been– fine, but nothing crazy.

If you feel that my descriptions of these players are brief and insignificant, it’s because they are not wow players that Minnesota’s front office must trade for. Though they are probably willing to talk trades, I’ve completely skipped over Colorado and Oakland’s pieces, as there’s just no perfect player, let alone an under-the-radar guy, out there. All that the Twins need is in the confines of Minneapolis, St. Paul, Wichita, Cedar Rapids, and Fort Myers.

Brooks Lee has been crushing the opposition in Double-A this year with a .289/.360/472 slash line. Edouard Julien has combined his elite power (the extra-base hits will come) with veteran-esque plate discipline (see below). And a healthy Alex Kirilloff has shown signs of maturation with his 10.4% walk rate.

Don’t forget about how Jorge Polanco, Jose Miranda, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis have all missed serious time or performed poorly due to nagging injuries.

With the power of a bulleted list, I present to you the best argument against making any sort of deadline move. Numbers are their best wRC+ number in either 2021, 2022, 2023 or for their whole career.

** Correa’s recent assignment as leadoff man is certainly a fresh look, but was expected/desirable based on this earlier analysis.

The future is bright in Minnesota. The lineup isn’t far off from achieving the same success the pitching staff has. Why get in the way of their own potential by acquiring a new face? Besides, a trade that ends up like the Mahle deal would stunt their growth. If there’s going to be any shuffling of the Twins’ roster, it should be the addition of a new (or familiar), low-risk bullpen arm.