How Long Will the Twins Stick With the Sheriff?

It was a showdown at high noon at Target Field. (Technically, it was 1 p.m.) Chris Paddack took the mound for the Minnesota Twins and looked to clinch a series victory over the Houston Astros.

A former top prospect in the San Diego Padres organization, Paddack was expected to be in this moment. His 6'4" frame and flowing locks earned him the sheriff nickname. However, when the game began, he looked more like Barney Fife than Walt Coogan.

Paddack’s first pitch was a 97.3 mph single off Jose Altuve's bat. His second was an Isaac Paredes single. The Astros scored a run before most fans settled in with their popcorn, and it was another tough afternoon.

Things went smoother in the next few innings, but the problem remained. Paddack pitched four innings, allowing three earned runs, seven hits, two walks, and a pair of strikeouts. His short start exposed Minnesota's bullpen, and a 7-1 lead evaporated in a 9-7 extra-inning loss.

There are several things you could point to that led to his loss. But Minnesota's inability to go deep into games cost them this afternoon, and it may be proof that they may no longer need this sheriff in the rotation.

This isn’t just a Paddack problem. Twins pitchers have struggled to put together long outings this season. They only have one start over five innings in their first nine games. While there’s confidence that Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober will turn things around, fans are concerned about Paddack because of his past performance.

Paddack’s rookie season forecasted a bright future when he went 9-7 with a 3.33 ERA in San Diego. However, things changed when he went 11-12 with a 4.95 ERA over the next two seasons, and the Padres traded him to the Twins days before the 2022 season. After undergoing Tommy John surgery as a prospect, Paddack had a second one after five starts with the Twins and has struggled to stay on the mound in the past three seasons.

Last year, Paddack started to look like a regular starter when he logged 88.1 innings. However, the workload caught up to him, and the Twins placed him on the injured list. Paddack has struggled since then, allowing 12 earned runs through his first 7.1 innings this season.

There’s plenty of time in the season to turn around a slow start. Still, Paddack has only thrown over 100 innings twice in his previous six seasons and hasn’t done it since the 2021 season. The Twins' situation has also changed since he arrived in Minnesota.

When the Twins acquired Paddack, they didn't have many starting options. The trade that sent Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker to the Padres was designed to give the Twins a high-upside arm with several years of team control, which could buy time for those young arms to develop.

Paddack's production hasn’t been there, but this doesn’t mean the Sheriff must walk off into the sunset. While his dreams of remaining a starter may be fleeting, Paddack has been a solid reliever. His biggest example came in the 2023 ALDS when he averaged a 96.6 mph fastball and caught the attention of Houston's hitting coach, Alex Cintrón.

“He was filthy. He was legit,” Cintrón told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal last spring. “It was surprising, shocking how good he was coming back from the surgery, coming out of the pen.”

Paddack noted the benefits of coming out of the bullpen later in Rosenthal’s article.

“I never thought in a million years I’d be comfortable out there,” Paddack said. “Being a starter, we have our special routines, superstitions, brushing our teeth this way, doing bands that way. But coming out of the bullpen changed my career.”

Of course, the Twins couldn’t use Paddack in that capacity a year ago when trying to create starting depth on a severely restricted budget. But that situation has changed with what is happening in the minor leagues.

David Festa has become a top pitching prospect who is knocking on the door of the major leagues. Zebby Matthews got a major-league stint because of Paddack’s injury last season and is flirting with a 100 mph fastball at Triple-A St. Paul. Marco Raya and Andrew Morris are also close to debuting, creating the pitching pipeline president Derek Falvey developed in Cleveland before the Twins hired him in 2017.

If Paddack can’t go deep into games, it may be time for another young gunslinger to take his place. That could send a player that many call the sheriff riding into the sunset, conveniently located in Minnesota’s bullpen.