How Can Jaden McDaniels Cut Down On His Foul Trouble?

Jaden McDaniels has been an excellent defender since the Minnesota Timberwolves drafted him with the 28th pick in 2020. His combination of quickness and length wreaks havoc on opposing lineups on and off the ball. Appropriately nicknamed “Seatbelt,” McDaniels shuts down ball handlers and creates panic on outside shooters with speedy closeouts. Although he’s missed ten games this season, McDaniels and Rudy Gobert are the engine that’s driving Minnesota’s league-best defense.

But the next step for McDaniels is defending without fouling.

There’s no play that McDaniels can’t make, but sometimes that means he tries to do too much. The clip below shows McDaniels recovering around a dribble-handoff/ball-screen combo too aggressively, resulting in an and-one for Austin Reaves:

[video width=1280" height="720" mp4="https://zonecoverage.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/mcdaniels_badfoul_on_reaves.mp4]

Sometimes, McDaniels gets a bit too handsy. Even on plays with marginal contact, McDaniels is in danger of picking up a couple of reach-in fouls each game, like the one below on Naji Marshall. This particular one came with the Wolves down four points with just over four minutes of game time remaining, making it a critical mistake:

[video width=1280" height="720" mp4="https://zonecoverage.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/mcdaniels_reachin_on_najimarshall.mp4]

It’s possible fouls can be a product of good defense. The best defenders will put themselves in situations where they could commit fouls because they know they can make players everywhere.

With the help of the NBA’s Advanced Stats and some computer programming, we can see who the best defenders are and how often they foul. It may seem like McDaniels has a fouling issue, but with added context from other good defenders around the league, he may be somewhat normal. By normal, we mean that he may foul at an expected rate based on how tight of defense he plays.

While it has flaws, Defensive Rating (DRTG) attempts to capture a player’s defensive value. Since it is represented numerically and is easily retrievable, it can be used for regression analysis and correlations.

Unfortunately, though perhaps unsurprisingly, there is essentially no correlation between a player’s defensive rating and the rate at which he commits fouls. Players who commit fewer fouls have worse defensive ratings, but the relationship is weak, with a correlation coefficient of under -0.1. Anything between 0.3 and -0.3 is considered weak, with numbers closer to 0 being the weakest. There is little to no predictive value between DRTG and fouls per minute. Players who foul a lot can play just as good of defense as those who don't commit many fouls.

Fouls lead to free throws, often leading to points and a higher DRTG. But committing more fouls isn’t a catastrophe for defenders trying to prevent points from being scored.

Although we can’t say that fouls per minute depend on DRTG, this analysis has pinpointed that McDaniels has a fouling issue.

Of the 268 players who have played in at least 15 games while playing at least 15 minutes per game in those games, McDaniels commits the ninth-most fouls per minute. His aggression on defense allows him to pester opponents, but the fouls he commits associated with that aggression are dampening the effect he could have on games.

On a separate note, McDaniels doesn’t appear to have found his groove yet this season. His DRTG is ninth among Wolves players. It’s possible the games in which he missed against easier matchups, like the two games against a depleted Memphis Grizzlies team, the Charlotte Hornets, the San Antonio Spurs, and a Jimmy Butler-less Miami Heat team, have made the disparity between himself and his teammates wider. Regardless, it’s an insignificant detail that stood out during this process.

Despite his prevalent fouling issue, McDaniels is among the best perimeter defenders in the NBA. There are good defenders across the fouling spectrum, and working on that aspect of his game could allow his offensive game to flourish as he stays in more games longer.