Has Emilio Pagan Found A Sweet Spot?

Emilio Pagán will forever be part of one of the weirdest trades in Minnesota Twins history. On Opening Day last year, the Twins sent Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker to the San Diego Padres for Chris Paddack, Pagán, and a player to be named later. Paddack and Pagán didn’t play that day because the game got postponed, but they still had to adapt to their new surroundings quickly.

Paddack pitched five innings and then had his second Tommy John surgery. The Twins extended him for three years, $12.53 million, hoping he’ll recover, but he hasn’t pitched yet this season. Rogers had an 87 ERA+ in San Diego, and they traded him to the Milwaukee Brewers, where he pitched worse (74 ERA+). However, he signed a three-year, $33 million deal with the San Francisco Giants and settled in with a 143 ERA+.

Rooker is the most curious case. He only played in two games with San Diego and didn’t have a hit in seven plate appearances. They traded him to the Kansas City Royals, but he hit .160/.276/.200 in 14 games. However, the Oakland Athletics picked Rooker up off waivers in the off-season, and he hit .353/.465/.779 in the season’s first month. Rooker has cooled off since, hitting below the Mendoza line in May and June. Still, he made his first All-Star appearance this year and has a 127 OPS+.

Pagán quickly became persona non grata among many fans. It was never fair to expect him to be a one-to-one replacement for Rogers. However, he had a career year with the Tampa Bay Rays (2.31 ERA, 190 ERA+) before struggling for two years in San Diego, and Rocco Baldelli and some of his staff had worked in Tampa. Perhaps they could get him back to the pitcher he was when he was in central Florida. It didn’t work last year (88 ERA+, 1.365 WHIP), but they may have tapped into something with Pagán this season.

His 3.38 FIP is in line with his 2019 season (3.30), and his 1.087 WHIP is below his career average. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and walks and hits per innings pitched (WHIP) are standard underlying numbers that indicate how well a player is pitching. FIP isolates a pitcher’s ability to limit home runs, walks, and hitting batters while factoring in strikeouts. It measures what a pitcher can control. WHIP is kind of like his heartbeat. How often is he giving up walks and hits, creating traffic on the bases? ERA+ measures how well he’s pitching versus the average pitcher, with 100 ERA+ being league-average.

Pagán has pitched well in most of his outings this season, especially recently. But his worst outings are particularly memorable. Pagán gave up six runs in 1⅔ innings when Rocco Baldelli turned to him after Kenta Maeda’s injury in Boston on April 20. He gave up a game-winning grand slam to the Los Angeles Dodgers in May. And he blew a save in Toronto on May 11. But Pagán has settled in after a tough first month and owns a 1.13 ERA in June. Batters hit .326/.356/.465 (.821 OPS) against him in April. However, he held them to .146/.271/.268 (.539 OPS) and .178/.229/.333 (.563 OPS) in May and June, respectively.

So what’s the secret to his success? He said he isn't doing much differently except he's added a little velocity on the fastball and throwing more strikes on 0-0 pitches. But leverage tells an interesting story. Opponents are hitting .211/.318/.526 (.845 OPS) against him in high-leverage situations (10 games, 22 plate appearances), but .211/.250/.316 (.566 OPS) and .200/.273/.320 (.593 OPS) in medium (17 G, 40 PA) and low-leverage situations (33 G, 110 PA). That’s not ideal. Rogers has value because he pitches well in high leverage. Same with Jhoan Durán or any closer. But Pagán’s ability to get outs in medium or lower leverage is why they re-signed and continue to employ him.

Ideally, Pagán could pitch effectively in high-leverage situations. He could fill in for Brock Stewart and Caleb Thielbar, effective veteran relievers who are injured. Pagán could also fill the setup role Jorge López vacated earlier this year. And if Pagán could close games, it would allow the Twins to use Durán in high-leverage situations earlier in games. But Pagán still has a role in the bullpen, even if he isn’t the dominant reliever he was in 2019. They still need his coverage in lower-leverage innings.

Pagán will get opportunities to pitch in higher-leverage situations until Stewart and Thielbar return. The Twins need someone to bridge the gap between their starters and Durán, and Pagán, 32, is one of their veteran relievers. He could greatly help the pitching staff by getting outs when it matters most. But even if he doesn’t, and he falls in the bullpen hierarchy when Stewart and Thielbar get healthy, he’s still providing coverage for a team that needs it.

All stats are via Baseball-Reference.