Do the Twins Have To Close the Gap With Cleveland By the End Of July?

On May 30, the New York Mets designated former Minnesota Twins reliever Jorge López for assignment. They did so in response to his behavior in a 10-3 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Shortly after giving up a two-run home run to Shohei Ohtani, López threw his glove into the stands after third-base umpire Ramon De Jesus ejected him for arguing his ruling on Freddie Freeman’s check swing.

“We have standards here,” Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said after the loss, which dropped New York to 22-33 on the season. “When you're not playing well, guys will show emotions. There's frustrations, but there's a fine line and yesterday went over that line.”

The Chicago Cubs picked up López and added him to their active roster on Friday. López’s talent has always intrigued teams. The Milwaukee Brewers took him in the second round of the 2011 draft, and he was an All-Star closer with the Baltimore Orioles in 2022. At the trade deadline that year, the Twins sent left-handed starter Cade Povich, reliever Yennier Cano, and two prospects for López. ESPN gave Minnesota an A- and the O’s an F- for the trade.

A year later, though, ESPN gave Baltimore an A+ and the Twins an F. Bradford Doolittle initially hated that the Orioles had traded their closer while in the playoff hunt. However, López had a 1.68 ERA (234 ERA+) with the O’s and finished with a 4.37 ERA (90 ERA+) in Minnesota. Conversely, Povich is in Baltimore’s rotation, and Cano was an All-Star last season and owns a 2.43 ERA (164 ERA+) in the past two seasons after finishing his rookie season with an 11.50 ERA (35 ERA+).

As the July 30 trade deadline nears, the Twins must decide whether it’s worth bolstering their roster. Minnesota has looked like a contender when Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, and Byron Buxton have been healthy and in the lineup together. However, the Twins enter July six games back of the Cleveland Guardians, and pitching is likely Minnesota’s chief concern.

Joe Ryan (3.21 ERA, 124 ERA+) and Simeon Woods Richardson (3.41 ERA, 117 ERA+) have pitched well. But Pablo López (4.88 ERA, 81 ERA+) hasn’t built off the strong end to his season last year. However, López’s underlying numbers (3.90 FIP, 1.149 WHIP) indicate he’ll experience positive regression. Still, the Twins may want to trade for a starting pitcher before July 30, given they have many position-player prospects and nearly a full major-league roster.

Similarly, the Twins have the elements of a strong bullpen, but Jhoan Durán (3.51 ERA, 115 ERA+) hasn’t been as effective because of a drop in his velocity. Still, Griffin Jax (1.98 ERA, 202 ERA+) has been almost unhittable, Steven Okert (3.46 ERA, 116 ERA+) was a good pickup, and Jorge Alcalá (1.88 ERA, 213 ERA+) is pitching well now that he’s healthy. By adding some relief help, though, Minnesota could add vital depth to round out its bullpen.

In 2022, the Twins traded for Jorge López, Tyler Mahle, and Michael Fulmer to bolster their pitching staff for a playoff run.

Mahle had a 4.41 ERA (90 ERA+) down the stretch and a 3.16 ERA (136 ERA+) last year. However, he only made nine starts due to injury and signed with the Texas Rangers in free agency. Meanwhile, Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand have reached the majors with the Cincinnati Reds, and Steer earned Rookie of the Year votes last year.

Fulmer had a 3.70 ERA (107 ERA+) in Minnesota and signed with the Cubs the following season. The Detroit Tigers called up the prospect the Twins sent them in the trade, Sawyer Gipson-Long, and he had a 2.70 ERA (166 ERA+) in four starts.

The Twins were 54-49 when they traded for Mahle, López, and Fulmer on August 2, 2022. Media and fans alike commended them for making a push while Cleveland and the Chicago White Sox stood pat. However, Minnesota went 10-18 in September and went from leading the division to missing the playoffs. Mahle, López, and Fulmer failed to make a long-term impact on the team, and Povich, Steer, Gipson-Long, and Encarnacion-Strand are in the majors.

Last year, the Twins stood pat at the deadline, except for training López to the Miami Marlins for Dylan Floro, and won their first playoff series since 2002. They have some prospects who could fill holes on their active roster, but they could use some pitching depth. Minnesota can’t learn the wrong lesson from 2022 because their lack of aggression at the deadline may have hurt them against the Houston Astros last year.

As we get closer to the end of the month, it’ll become clearer whether the Twins should go all-in at the July 30 trade deadline. They must stay within a few games of Cleveland to be aggressive, though. Even then, there’s inherent risk involved. Mahle pitched well but couldn’t stay healthy. Fulmer only stayed a year. And everyone expected regression with López, but it would be hard to anticipate his meltdowns. Conversely, Povich looked like a second-tier prospect, and Cano had a 9.22 ERA in Minnesota.

The Twins need some pitching help. But they must close in on Cleveland to justify being aggressive enough at the deadline to trade for it.