Do Paddack and Vázquez Mean More To the Twins Than Every Other Team?

When the offseason began, the Minnesota Twins dove back into everyone’s favorite topic: Payroll restrictions.

The Twins slashed $30 million from payroll last season and operated at $130 million. While reports stated there wouldn’t be further payroll slashing this winter, they didn’t signal it would increase. That meant they'd be shopping several highly-paid players.

Fans connected the dots to believe that Chris Paddack and Christian Vázquez wouldn’t be on the team next season.

However, with just over a couple of weeks until Spring Training, Paddack and Vázquez are still on the roster. Outside of Dan Hayes' report in The Athletic about the San Diego Padres’ potential interest, there hasn’t been anything to indicate a deal is coming.

Without the $17.5 million the Twins would clear up by moving Paddack and Vázquez players, they haven’t signed a single major-league free agent. The process has become a source of frustration, but the biggest hold-up may be that Vázquez and Paddack mean more to Minnesota than anybody else.

That sounds insane, considering what Vázquez and Paddack have done for the Twins.

Vázquez signed a three-year, $30 million free agent contract to become the starting catcher for the 2023 season. However, Ryan Jeffers has taken over as Minnesota's starter. Vázquez, 34, has also declined offensively since arriving in Minnesota. In 195 games, he has hit .222/.265/.322 with 13 homers and 59 RBI.

Paddack has had a similar arc with the Twins. Acquired in the trade that sent Brent Rooker and Taylor Rogers to San Diego, Paddack’s elbow issues resulted in his second Tommy John surgery. The Twins signed Paddack to a three-year, $12.5 million contract extension the following offseason, hoping to have the same success they did with a rehabbing Michael Pineda in 2017. However, he hasn’t made a return on that investment.

While rehabbing in 2023, Paddack was limited to five innings. He returned for the playoffs and pitched 3.2 scoreless innings in relief. Still, he only threw 88.1 innings while going 5-3 with a 4.99 ERA this season.

Looking at both players’ track records, it’s hard to think an opposing general manager would give up anything more than a teenage prospect or cash considerations in exchange for a 33-year-old catcher or a starter who hasn’t thrown for over 100 innings since 2021. Still, the Twins could be looking for a higher asking price because Paddack and Vázquez have inflated roles on the team.

Fans may want to move on from Vázquez, but the Twins may not be able to find someone to replace him. Minnesota acquired Mickey Gasper from the Boston Red Sox on Christmas Eve. However, he’s a 29-year-old minor leaguer whose defense drew negative reviews from scouts who talked to The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman. The Twins also have Jair Camargo and Diego Cartaya at Triple-A, but neither seems prepared for a full-time major league role.

That's concerning when you look at Jeffers’ 2024 season. While he had a fast start, Jeffers finished with a .226/.300/.432 line with 21 homers and 64 RBI. His defense also dropped off, with a minus-4 in defensive runs saved.

While a career-high 122 games (including 86 behind the plate) could be part of the problem, the Twins need someone to spell Jeffers to cut that total down. Therefore, if the Twins trade Vázquez, Jeffers could be in for an even bigger workload next season unless one of the internal options becomes a legitimate major leaguer.

It’s a similar situation with Paddack. The Twins have plenty of young arms ready to jump into the rotation, and Simeon Woods Richardson established himself last season. With Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober at the top and Woods Richardson as the No. 4 starter, it leaves top prospects David Festa and Zebby Matthews to battle for the final spot.

Twins fans would be okay with this, considering it would be a sign that Falvey has begun to develop homegrown pitching. But it’s also dangerous to play video game baseball thinking nobody will get hurt.

Consider that the 2023 Twins had eight different players start at least five games on the way to an AL Central title. Some of those innings belonged to Louie Varland, Dallas Keuchel, and Tyler Mahle. Still, proper major-league depth helped the Twins stay afloat when one of their regulars went on the shelf.

Minnesota had eight players make five or more starts last season. However, 29 of those starts went to the inexperienced trio of Festa, Matthews, and Varland. Woods Richardson was an afterthought during Spring Training. Still, he finished third on the team with 28 starts and fourth with 135 innings pitched.

While those four players will be better with some major league experience, it would help to have one more veteran on the staff. That would allow one of the younger pitchers to refine their game at Triple-A if they stumble out of the gate and give the Twins the type of stability they didn’t have when Ryan suffered a season-ending shoulder injury last August.

The Twins consider those things when setting an asking price, but it's also something opposing general managers will try to exploit. Getting either player for pennies on the dollar is something that any team tries to achieve in a trade. However, even more so when the rest of the league knows the team they're talking to is trying to “right-size their business.”

That could be the hold-up in a potential deal, and it’s why Paddack and Vázquez could return to the Twins even if it isn’t at the right price.