Did the Guardians Accidentally Help the Twins By Re-Signing Carlos Santana?

On Saturday, Minnesota Twins fans discovered that the Twins would not be reuniting with Carlos Santana. Instead, the 38-year-old first baseman returned to where his career started, signing a one-year, $12 million deal with the Cleveland Guardians.

Santana probably would not have been available to the Guardians at that price had they not traded fellow first baseman Josh Naylor to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Naylor, 27, is coming off his first All-Star season with career highs in home runs (31), RBI (108), walks (58), and games played (152).

Naylor has been projected to earn as much as $12 million in arbitration for 2025. Cleveland has not made any secret about its budget constraints on its payroll, which is currently projected to be at $106 million for 2025. However, subtracting one first baseman to save $12 million only to add another at the same price sends mixed signals from Progressive Field.

Like Naylor, Santana had an impressive season in 2024. He led the Twins with 23 homers and 71 RBI and won the first Gold Glove of his career at 38. Naylor is coming off the healthiest season of his career. However, Santana has been the model of a healthy position player in modern baseball.

Santana has only had one season where he’s played fewer than 143 games, dating back to 2011. That was in 2022, when he split time between the Royals and Mariners. Santana had only played in 131. Still, Santana will be one of the three oldest position players in the game next season, with free agents Matt Carpenter and Justin Turner only ahead of him in age.

Santana may be the best hitter and defender among MLB’s oldest veterans. Still, not everyone can produce at a Nelson Cruz-type level of production at age 39. He had a .311/.392/.639 triple slash and 1.031 OPS with the Twins in 2019. On the other hand, Naylor may have the opportunity to have the best numbers of his career heading to the Diamondbacks to replace Christian Walker at first base.

The humidified baseballs help Chase Field be one of the better hitter-friendly ballparks in America. The Diamondbacks had .276/.347/.451 triple slash and .798 OPS at home last year. Naylor may not be the same caliber defensive player as Santana or Walker at first. However, as long as he stays healthy, he’ll have a chance to repeat and improve upon his new career highs at the plate in 2025.

So, how has Cleveland’s choice to reunite with Santana at $12 million become an accidental way of helping the Twins? By spending $12 million on a player the Twins only paid $5 million last season, they’ve limited themselves from making any further moves in free agency.

The Guardians have had factory-level productions with their pitching prospects over the last 30 years. Their pitching pipeline doesn’t look as strong as it was five years ago when Shane Bieber was a prospect. But thanks to rookie relievers Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith, and Tim Herrin, the Guardians had the best bullpen in baseball in 2024 and still found ways to have pitchers appear seemingly out of nowhere and dominate at the major league level.

Still, Bieber is returning to the Guardians on a one-year deal after undergoing Tommy John surgery following his second start of the season in 2024. Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively were the only two starters who pitched over 150 innings for Cleveland last season. As great as it will be for their fans to have Santana back for a third time, they could have used the $12 million spent on him for another starter.

But the starting pitching market has not come cheap this offseason. Mike Soroka earned a $9 million deal from the Washington Nationals after a mediocre season where he dealt with injuries with the Chicago White Sox in 2024. Soroka posted a 4.74 ERA across 79 ⅔ innings. Still, he earned a one-year deal, demonstrating that even back-end starters who can double up as long relievers are coming at a premium in this free-agent market.

There’s no denying that even if Sananta shows regression on the field as age catches up with him, reuniting him with the Guardians will provide great leadership for a new-wave youth front in their clubhouse. His presence will be helpful to fellow first baseman Kyle Manzardo, who only played six of his first 53 games in the majors at first base.

However, the price point of bringing Santana back to Cleveland will hinder their ability to make more moves this offseason. The Twins are still busy dealing with payroll constraints. However, if one of their three division rivals who beat them into the postseason in 2024 faces the same issues with fewer dollars to spend. Then, the Twins can shuffle around their own roster and add the players they need to ensure they can take the AL Central back from the Guardians in 2025.