Dallas’ Run Defense Offers the Vikings A Conundrum — and An Opportunity

For all his shortcomings, J.J. McCarthy has never lacked confidence. Whether or not Kevin O’Connell and the Minnesota Vikings would say the same is another question. But regardless of the answer, Minnesota will face a simple reality Sunday night against the Dallas Cowboys.

Entering the matchup, the Cowboys have the league's worst pass defense, allowing 255 yards per game through the air. They even allowed 450 yards to a lifeless Russell Wilson-led New York Giants team earlier in the year, and were carved up by Jared Goff last week to the tune of 309 yards.

While it seems that an aerial attack would be the obvious game plan for the Vikings, McCarthy has only eclipsed 200 yards passing once this year – a 248-yard effort on a whopping 42 pass attempts against the Baltimore Ravens. So while a rushing-focused approach worked wonders against the Washington Commanders last week, the Vikings may have to trust their young quarterback to sling it if they're going to win in Dallas.

The Vikings found their magic formula last week against the Commanders with a steady dose of rushes, complemented by a nice quick-pass game. McCarthy played smart, turnover-free football and let his running backs do the heavy lifting. Sticking with that can win them a lot of games in the future. But on Sunday night, the Vikings will be forced to admit that, eventually, you need to air it out to win games in the NFL.

The Cowboys are perfectly fine with every game turning into a shootout. They are the only team in the NFL that scores and allows over 29 points per game. On the other hand, the Vikings aren’t built to come back from big deficits. Before last week’s offensive eruption, they had averaged just 7.5 points per game over their last three. Dallas has scored 30 or more points seven times this year. So it’s a bit concerning knowing that there’s a realistic chance that Minnesota will have to put up another 31-point performance in back-to-back weeks – something that they haven't done since Weeks 3 and 4 of last year.

The good news, of course, is that nobody is worse against the pass than Dallas. The bad news is that 29 other teams have better passing offenses than the Vikings. So why not run the ball and play to Minnesota’s strength? Since acquiring defensive tackle Quinnen Williams a month ago, the Dallas run defense has been borderline elite, allowing just 79 rushing yards per game. Minnesota can certainly test that newfound prowess, but, realistically, all paths lead to McCarthy having to go out and win his team a game.

In last week’s win, McCarthy did throw for three touchdowns, but it didn’t really feel like he won the game for Minnesota. He took care of the ball and made plays when he had to, but, overall, the game felt like just doing what you should do against three-win teams. Dallas won’t roll over so easily, and McCarthy could — and probably should — be asked to throw the ball 30 times.

Fans and coaches need to see that the Commanders' game wasn't a fluke and that McCarthy is making real strides. But even though there was a lot of emphasis put on the dumbing down of the offense for McCarthy, O’Connell revealed that his quarterback can still do everything he needs to do for this thing to work.

“When you’re trying to make the game plan friendly for the quarterback,” O’Connell said, “it’s [still] NFL football. There are a lot of layers to it, and the word ‘simplification’ and all of that is getting thrown out. If it were that simple, I’d probably get a lot more rest throughout the week.”

Letting McCarthy rip it against Dallas has one clear disadvantage. Winning the turnover battle has been the deciding factor in Minnesota’s wins and losses, and, with each pass attempt, the odds McCarthy tosses one to a player in silver and blue increase. Last week was his first turnover-free performance, and it seemed more like an anomaly than obvious progress. Still, if the game does evolve into a shootout, the Vikings should have plenty of opportunities at the plate to make up for any errant passes.

Minnesota found success last Sunday, but may already have to turn its game plan on its head just a week later. The porous Dallas pass defense gives the Vikings not only a chance at another win, but also a valuable look at how McCarthy responds to being asked to carry a team on his back. While there will be games that call for it, Minnesota didn’t take a quarterback in the first round to let him hand the ball off 35 times a game. It’s time to show that this progress is the real deal.