Can the Vikings Get Jordan Addison More Touches?

When the Minnesota Vikings selected Jordan Addison in the first round of the 2023 draft, head coach Kevin O'Connell calmly said, “This guy’s a Day 1 starter.”

Addison has been just that. O’Connell got on the phone with the young man out of USC and said, “I told you we’d get you…. you and Justin Jefferson breaking the huddle at the same time is a problem.”

Receivers coach Keenan McCardell echoed his sentiments. “There’s swag in the room,” he said as he clapped his hands eagerly.

The selection paid off in Year 1 when the Vikings had to weather seven-and-a-half games without Jefferson. All the 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner did was make big plays, tallying 70 receptions for 911 yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie. Addison generated palpable excitement for his sophomore season alongside a healthy Jefferson.

However, while Addison has missed two games, his seven-game totals project a significant drop in production even when scaled for a full 17-game season. He would be on pace for 51 receptions for 713 yards and five touchdowns. So, what’s changed?

One explanation is Jefferson's being healthy and commanding a significant target share. However, T.J. Hockenson also demands targets and has missed most of the season this year.

I watched every passing snap when Addison was on the field this season to identify other contributing factors. Is he still separating at a high level? Is Sam Darnold not looking his way enough? Or does it have to do with play design placing him late in the quarterback’s progressions?

The short answer to all of these questions? Yes.

Per NFL Pro, his average separation is 28th among receivers, in line with Davante Adams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Chris Olave. Addison is lethal against off-coverage, particularly on out-breaking routes. When presented with off-coverage, Addison does a great job of gaining quick depth on his stem and rarely shows his cards when setting up a quick out or a deeper 7 route.

Given his frame, he has his limitations when pressed. However, Kevin O’Connell and Co. scheme up free releases to minimize his weaknesses and accentuate those strengths.

Addison’s 16.6% target rate (132nd in the league) to this point in the season is down only slightly from his rookie season target rate (18.1%), which puts him on pace for just five fewer targets overall. Not a significant discrepancy. Still, it is the feeling among most Vikings fans that Addison isn’t getting the ball enough.

Both can be true. Rookie to sophomore year isn’t a one-for-one comparison. Many among us expected a second-year leap.

Addison is an excellent receiver, but the Vikings don't rely on him to win contested catches or beat physical corners off the line of scrimmage. Addison is at his best in space, stressing defenses vertically and finding soft spots in zone coverage. Therefore, it is by design and Darnold’s discretion that only 6.1% of Jordan Addison’s targets are tight-window throws. For reference, Jefferson’s is 23.1% despite him being a great separator.

Some expected Addison to receive a similar target diet as Jefferson, only on a slightly smaller scale. However, the two receivers have wildly different skill sets. For the overall ecosystem of the offense, this is a good thing!

Minnesota's entire ensemble of pass catchers is complementary to one another. Jefferson is the true “X” receiver who can do it all: beat press off the line of scrimmage, run the 9 route, backside digs, tunnel screens, and everything in between. He is the focal point of every opponent’s game plan. Hockenson is a versatile tight end who can dominate over the middle of the field on sit or choice routes while also detaching from the line and operating out of the slot. The niche that Addison has carved out for himself on this offense blends perfectly.

Addison is the deep threat.

His deep target rate (targets of 20-plus yards) of 24.2% is the ninth-highest in the league this season. It is an even higher rate than Tyreek Hill and D.K. Metcalf. Consequently, his 15.1 yards per target ranks sixth in the NFL. While many of his routes have home-run potential, more often than not he is running clearouts to take a safety out of the play and set something up underneath.

Opposing defenses respect Addison's threat of getting behind the coverage. His gravity on deep routes is an extremely important facet of the passing game plan. It is one of the most reliable ways to spring the oft-bracketed Jefferson for openings in the intermediate passing game, and it will be further accentuated the rest of the season as Hockenson continues to exploit the second level.

There have been plenty of instances this season where Darnold could have given Addison a chance deep but opted not to or had already come off that read. Many of these look-offs come in favor of a throw to Jefferson. In what should be a pick-your-poison passing attack, there are too many plays on which Darnold picks the defense’s poison for them.

As the season progresses, we should hope to see Darnold anticipate the attention Jefferson will inevitably receive and hit Addison for a back-breaker or two in most games.

It’s a symbiotic relationship between Jefferson and Addison, and there will be plenty of instances in the rest of the season where Jefferson opens things up for Addison. Realistically, though, there isn’t a lever that O’Connell can pull to force something like that. It’s all dependent on what the defense decides to give them. There are opportunities. However, they sometimes require Darnold to hold the ball for a longer beat or to come off of the concept’s primary read more often, which comes with some drawbacks.

While Addison’s production may have dropped, his play hasn’t. Many of the plays where Darnold doesn't target him drive reliable offense for the Vikings. Addison is starring in his role this season and helping the Vikings create advantages to win games. With KOC's aggression as a play-caller and Sam Darnold as a thrower, the big plays will come. With all of the other threats on the offense, they may come in bunches down the stretch.