The trade deadline is three weeks away, and the Minnesota Twins look like a broken team. They have now won as many series in July as they did in all of June, and it's only been a week.
Heading into the series against the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday, the Detroit Tigers lead Minnesota by 13.5 games in the AL Central. Meanwhile, they are five games behind the Seattle Mariners, the third wild-card team.
Detroit made a crazy run last season, making the thought of the Twins pulling it off intriguing. Still, it’s becoming less likely the more they sink below .500.
An uncertain ownership situation and a typically inactive front office may also hinder the possibility of a miracle run. New owners could mean a major shakeup for a front office that is tracking to miss the playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons.
So, what does the front office do? Should they shop players and plan for an unknown future? Or go out and strengthen a team that Fangraphs gives a current 19.1% chance to get to the playoffs?
Who can they sell high on?
There are six players whose contracts are expiring at the end of the season. The Twins are most likely to trade them to take a flyer on a prospect.
Those six include Willi Castro, Danny Coulombe, Harrison Bader, Ty France, Christian Vazquez, and Chris Paddack.
Each player has some value. Still, the Twins must focus on the players who will yield the highest return.
Willi Castro
Castro is Minnesota’s most versatile player on an expiring contract. His ability to play pretty much any position on the field is definitely an intriguing factor for any team that is a postseason contender.
He has the speed to make an impact defensively and on the basepaths. He’s also hitting .270/.364/.426, coming off an All-Star season. Taking calls on Castro seems like the thing to do, especially when he could be gone after the season.
Danny Coulombe
The Twins brought Coulombe back after two years in Baltimore, and he’s already making an impact. He often comes in with runners on base. According to Baseball-Reference, he has a game-entering leverage index of 1.11 (1.0 indicates mid-leverage situations). This suggests that his usage this season has been primarily for high-leverage situations.
Out of the 24 inherited runners given, Coulombe has only allowed four to score while having a 0.73 ERA and wins above replacement at a career-best 1.4, further proving his usage in those high-leverage spots. Given how well he’s pitched, almost any contender would like to add a reliever like him.
Harrison Bader
The Twins picked Bader up on a one-year, $6 million deal, and he has been very reliable for a struggling ball club.
His .250/.328/.429 slash line is the best since he was with the St. Louis Cardinals early in his career. However, he’s made his biggest impact in the field.
Bader can make plays on the field that maybe only teammate Byron Buxton can replicate.
Contenders need someone who can make the challenging plays look routine. With the season Bader is having, teams will come knocking.
What do they need to upgrade?
If the front office believes that this team has a chance to make it like last year’s Detroit Tigers and roll into the playoffs, where do they look to improve?
Pitching
The most glaring and obvious area to address is pitching.
Starting pitching, to be specific.
Minnesota has placed three starters on the IL since June 3: Pablo López, Zebby Matthews, and, most recently, Bailey Ober. The team has had to rely heavily on the bullpen and needed other starters to step up in their absence.
An extra arm, preferably one that can get six-plus innings a start, could alleviate some of the stress and workload that the rest of the pitching staff may be feeling.
Catching depth
Minnesota also needs more catching depth. They don’t need to add Cal Raleigh. They just need a reliable catcher who can hit above the Mendoza line.
The Twins are on track to lose Vazquez after this season and potentially Ryan Jeffers next season, as Jeffers has one year left of arbitration with the Twins. If a deal or extension isn't done, one would then expect Jeffers to explore free agency.
Given their current catching situation, they should target players like Jonah Heim or Hunter Goodman.
First base
The Twins could use a power-hitting first baseman. Ty France is a pending free agent, and Kody Clemens is more of a utility player who’s hitting .203/.293/.471.
Josh Naylor might be the answer. The former Cleveland Guardians first baseman is familiar with Target Field and has slashed .225/.304/.414 with seven home runs in 47 games against the Twins.
Given Minnesota’s owners are still trying to sell the team, the Twins are likely to stay put, if not be light sellers, at the deadline. That will allow a new regime, whoever that may be, to do what they want with their team once the sale is finalized.
If the Twins sell this year, they’d become the third MLB team to exchange hands, joining the Chicago White Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays. Twins fans should not expect this broken team to be fixed until that deal gets done.
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