Can Kevin O’Connell Help Kyler Murray Rediscover His Deep Ball?

The Minnesota Vikings officially signed Kyler Murray on Thursday night. Doing so likely ends the J.J. McCarthy experiment, even if Kevin O’Connell told reporters that he doesn’t need to name a starter at this moment.

Murray will most likely be Minnesota’s starter when training camp begins, and the “quarterback competition” will be put to an end before it ever really begins.

O’Connell is saying he's still the “Quarterback Whisperer.” McCarthy didn’t pan out, but O’Connell could counter that he has seen all he needs to see out of the 23-year-old quarterback to determine that it’s time to move on.

O’Connell spoke to the media following the signing on Thursday. He discussed how much stress Minnesota’s offense can give defenses, given Murray’s mobility.

Kyler Murray has been an effective runner throughout his career. He has 532 career attempts, 3,193 rushing yards (6,0 average), and 32 touchdowns over seven seasons. In 2024, his last healthy season, Murray ranked fourth among quarterbacks with 572 rushing yards, and his 7.3 yards per carry ranked second among quarterbacks with at least 20 attempts.

But that element of his game should be secondary. He ran 78 times in 2024, 25 fewer times than Jefferson caught a pass that season. Murray may be capable of running, but the Vikings signed him to get the ball to Jefferson and Minnesota’s other weapons.

Through eight seasons, Murray has completed 67.1% of his passes. In 2024, he completed 68.8% of his passes, seventh-best in the NFL. However, not all passes are created equal.

Per Next Gen Stats, Murray completed 33% of his deep passes (20-plus yards downfield) in 2024, tied for 23rd in the NFL. His 9.2 yards per attempt on such passes ranked 31st in the league. Murray threw six touchdowns (T-12th) but also tossed five picks (T-fourth-worst).

No one in the league was better at throwing downfield than Sam Darnold in 2024. While engineering the Vikings to a 14-3 season, Darnold led the league in deep passing yards (1,023), completion percentage (46.7%), and tied for the lead in touchdowns (9). He ranked second in yards per attempt on deep passes (17.1), trailing only Tua Tagovailoa (17.2).

Compare that to McCarthy in 2025. The second-year quarterback completed 25.8% of his deep passes (28th) for two touchdowns (T-27th), five interceptions (most), for 9.6 yards per attempt (27th).

However, Darnold wasn’t always known for his deep-ball prowess. NGS data goes back to 2019, Darnold’s second season in the league. That year, he averaged 8.8 YPA and completed 25.5% of his deep passes. In 2020, he averaged 7.2 YPA and completed 25% of his passes. In 2021, he averaged 9.9 YPA and completed 29.9% of his passes.

Although he threw no touchdowns and three picks on such throws in 2022 with the Carolina Panthers, Darnold improved his efficiency. He completed 47.6% of his passes for a 17.6 YPA average. That would have ranked second-best in the league if he had played a full season. However, Carolina benched Darnold after six games, and he didn’t qualify.

However, Darnold would have trailed Tagovailoa. As a rookie, he completed 29.2% of his passes for a 7.9 YPA average. In 2021, he completed 41.7% of his passes for 15.8 YPA. However, he threw only one touchdown and tossed three interceptions.

In 2022, Tagovailoa exploded. He led the league in deep completion percentage (54%) and YPA (17.8). His 10 touchdowns ranked fourth in the league, and he only threw two picks all season.

That continued in 2023, with Tagovailoa leading the league in deep passing yards (1,058) and ranking third in YPA (19.2). He had a respectable 10:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

So what changed? One can point to head coach Mike McDaniel, whom the Miami Dolphins hired in 2022 and who served as their playcaller during his four years.

However, Frank Smith served as his offensive coordinator during those four years, and the Vikings hired Smith as the team’s assistant head coach this offseason.

O’Connell has been the Vikings’ playcaller since they hired him in 2022, and that won’t change in 2026. But Smith replaces Mike Pettine, a defensive-minded coach who retired following the 2025 season and had mentored O’Connell.

Smith could potentially challenge O’Connell to adapt his offensive philosophy. He’s also young (45) and may be more open to the ever-evolving league.

While Tagovailoa (6’1”) wasn’t as diminutive as Murray, he also doesn’t possess a rocket arm like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen to attack teams downfield. But Miami’s system allowed the team to gain large chunks of yardage with Tyreek Hill, another receiver who drew the defense’s attention.

Murray is capable of throwing deep. His numbers have suffered the past several seasons, but he averaged 15.1 yards per attempt in each of his first two seasons, which placed him in the top 10 each year, and 15.7 in 2021.

It wasn’t until 2022 that Murray’s downfield passing began to suffer. His yards per attempt dropped to a league-worst 6.7 yards, and although it improved to 10.7 YPA in 2023, he has yet to regain his downfield prowess from the early years of his career.

Murray possesses arm talent that surpasses McCarthy’s and Tagovailoa’s. There has been criticism of his height, but Murray has shown that he can perform at a high level.

Murray hasn’t been as effective throwing downfield recently, but it wouldn’t be unprecedented for him to find it again in Minnesota’s offense. He also wouldn’t be the first quarterback to take a major leap in his downfield passing after working with O’Connell.

Part of that improvement could come from refined mechanics. Perhaps the change in scenery can help Murray play with the “quieted mind” that O’Connell yearns for in his quarterbacks.

But some of Murray’s quarterback resurrection could be a result of a tailored offensive approach that ultimately failed for the first time under O’Connell in 2025.

Will O’Connell lean on Frank Smith to help design Minnesota’s passing attack? Could a run-first approach in the final five games of the 2025 season influence O’Connell to lean on a more balanced attack? And will the coach be more willing to accept Murray’s scrambles when he leaves the pocket after he’s exhausted all passing options downfield?

Signing Murray made sense because the Vikings will only pay him $1.3 million in 2026. It’s a low-risk contract for a two-time Pro Bowler. At worst, Minnesota is expecting a higher base level of quarterback play.

But can they help Murray outperform that floor and find his ceiling again? Or did he even reach his ceiling? He won’t turn 29 until August, so there is still room to grow, and he could be entering his prime seasons as a quarterback.

The Vikings improved their team on Thursday by signing Kyler Murray. Now, how they handle him can be the difference between a return to the playoffs and a deep postseason run.