Caleb Banks Is the Anti-Mock Pick

In the months leading up to the 2026 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings were connected to Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman. It started at the scouting combine in February, and mock drafters everywhere fell in line. By the time the draft began on Thursday night, Thieneman’s 65% projection rate was the second-highest in the NFL Mock Draft Database’s consensus mock draft. But, after they took their time, the Vikings selected Florida defensive tackle Caleb Banks.

Thieneman only trailed Fernando Mendoza, who had a 100% projection rate to the Las Vegas Raiders with the No. 1 overall pick. It seemed like it was a formality when Thieneman was still on the board as the Vikings went on the clock.

However, Banks is a controversial choice in many ways, and Vikings fans were predictably confused when the Vikings called his name instead of Thieneman’s. But the gigantic whiff by the mock draft community shows that the talent evaluators in charge might have a better idea of how Banks could be a better pick than many expect.

The biggest concern with Banks is his injury history, mainly regarding his left foot. Banks dealt with the issue late in the 2024 season at Florida and underwent surgery during the offseason. He reinjured his foot and missed the first two games of his senior season, and injured it again in his first game back.

After suffering a fractured fourth metatarsal in his left foot as he was practicing for the 40-yard dash at the combine, Banks’ stock continued to slide. He was graded as a second- to third-round pick by The Athletic’s Dane Brugler and checked in at 37th on Arif Hasan’s consensus board at the Wide Left substack.

In the end, Vikings fans may view Banks as the next Sharrif Floyd, for the same reasons they believe Thieneman is the next Harrison Smith. But there are also some really good reasons for them to go ahead and take Banks instead of getting cute and trading down.

Banks’ overall grades didn’t jump off the page at Pro Football Focus, posting a career high of 73 during the 2024 season. But the biggest appeal was his ability to rush the passer, generating a 12.1% pressure rate and 53 total pressures on 438 pass-rushing snaps between the 2023 and 2024 seasons. His 11.2% pass-rush win rate also ranked 30th among 199 qualifying pass rushers during the 2024 season.

ESPN’s Pete Thamel also reported on Wednesday that NFL teams received a letter on his latest foot injury stating he is “on pace to be fully cleared for full football activities in early June,” suggesting he shouldn’t miss much, if any, time during the offseason program and training camp.

But the biggest reason Banks makes sense is the position he plays. Thieneman wouldn’t have been a bad option, but he also would have been a premium selection at a position that can be found in the later rounds. Even after Thieneman landed in Chicago, the Vikings could still find their Smith replacement as the draft continues, as Toledo’s Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (No. 24 on Wide Left’s consensus board), LSU’s A.J. Haulcy (No. 56), and TCU’s Bud Clark (No. 79) are still on the board after the opening round.

As Vikings fans know, defensive tackles with pass-rushing chops can also be much harder to find. Minnesota hasn’t had a defensive tackle finish a season with 10 or more sacks since Kevin Williams had 11.5 sacks in 2004. The Vikings haven’t had a defensive tackle with six or more sacks since Tom Johnson (6.5 sacks) did it in 2014, and Armon Watts was the last defensive tackle with five or more sacks in 2021 (five sacks).

Even when the Vikings tried to address the problem with Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave last offseason, neither of them proved to be a suitable solution. Taking a stab at a high-upside defensive tackle is a better analytical move than taking a high-upside safety.

But perhaps the biggest thing is that NFL teams usually just know more than the public. The consensus mock draft had just four correct picks in the first round. While that underscores why the draft is so popular, it also shows that we don’t know what front offices are thinking when entering the draft.

Of course, this doesn’t guarantee that Banks will be a good pick. Minnesota’s recent draft history and running this year’s festivities with interim general manager Rob Brzezinski aren’t going to inspire confidence. But this is a draft the Vikings have to get right. If they see Banks as a player who can be a blue-chip talent to headline the class, there has to be some conviction behind the move.

It also means that Vikings fans shouldn’t helmet-scout, believing that he’s destined to be a bust. In the end, this is the high-upside pick fans have wanted Minnesota to chase for quite some time. While it carries some risk, Banks’ résumé suggests they could be in for a big reward if their bold move pays off.