Bailey Ober's Changeup Has Unlocked the Rest Of His Repertoire

For years, Bailey Ober has been known for his imposing stature, abnormally low release, and high-whiff four-seamer.

The 6’9” pitcher has attacked the top of the zone with ease. Ober threw his four-seamer high (hiLoc) 79% of the time last year compared to the MLB average of 51.5%. Everyone understood his tendencies – including opposing hitters. While Ober still induced plenty of chases on the pitch last year, he’s taking a step forward with a revised approach.

After throwing his changeup in the zone about half the time in each of his first three seasons, Ober has purposely located it beneath the zone far more often. This season, 38.1% of his changeups fall in the zone.

The adjustment has led to meaningfully better results. Ober’s changeup always performed well, evidenced by a 17% swinging strike rate (SwStr%) last year compared to the MLB average 13.4%. He’s ascended to a 23.3% rate in 2024 (96th percentile).

Ober has ridden his changeup to a 2.18 ERA in 66 innings since his June 9 start against the Pittsburgh Pirates. That includes his shutout 6-inning stint against the Cleveland Guardians on Aug. 9, where he featured his changeup 39.6% of the time – the same amount as his four-seamer.

“I was able to locate it down underneath the zone,” Ober said after the start. “Early on in the game, I was leaning on that whenever I had some location issues with the fastball. So, I was able to get back on track, especially with the changeup. And throughout the game, it just kind of stuck.”

Ober’s usage in two-strike counts further demonstrates his commitment to the new approach.

“I think going into this year, we were trying to push outward with two strikes, get more chase,” he said, “and I feel like I’ve been able to do that just as a whole because my location, I felt like, has been better this season.”

He’s thrown more changeups in those counts with each passing year, culminating in a 42% usage rate (86th percentile) this season. He’s throwing a significant portion of his changeups in two-strike counts, allowing him to pile up even more strikeouts than before.

In addition to adjusting his changeup and fastball tendencies, Ober continues to find success with his new cutter.

Ober uses it against both-handed hitters. He consistently hits his spot down and away from righties or down and in on lefties. He uses this 86-mph breaking pitch in tandem with his 80-mph slider, and both pitches regularly miss bats.

Most importantly, Ober limits hard contact with his secondary pitches: his cutter, slider, and changeup.

However, like fellow Twins starters Joe Ryan and Pablo López, Ober struggles to keep the ball in the park. That tends to happen with such a heavy concentration of high four-seamers, making Ober’s emphasis on low changeups all the more meaningful.

Some pitchers experience poor luck with high home run per fly ball rates (HR/FB), which vary greatly from year to year.

Other pitchers, like Ober, may rely too heavily on four-seamers to succeed, which manifests in barrel rate.

According to data found on every PitcherList player page, four-seamers have a barrel rate of 10% – much higher than the 6% and 7% marks on changeups and sliders, respectively. Cutters are actually higher than four-seamers at 10.4%. However, it's worth noting that most pitcher’s cutters aren’t like Ober’s. His cutter is more like a gyro slider with its low low spin efficiency and high gyro degree.

I’m not saying this data means that a pitcher throwing exclusively changeups and sliders would avoid giving up barrels and, therefore, home runs. However, dialing back four-seamer usage and ramping up secondary usage could lower a pitcher’s home run rate. The typical location of a changeup and slider just simply doesn’t equate to home runs often, with the worst case more likely to be a hard-hit grounder or line drive rather than a barrel.

Ober’s 14.1 barrel rate on his four-seamer is balanced out by a stellar 3.6% and 6.2% rate on his changeup and cutter, respectively. This version of Ober could feature both strikeouts and a more easily digestible home run rate.