What's At Stake For the Packers In Their Final Three Games?

The Green Bay Packers are one win away from securing a playoff spot.

Even if the Packers lose out, they have a 94% chance of making the playoffs. They also still have an outside shot at the division, which would require the Detroit Lions to lose out and the Chicago Bears to upset the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football.

“We're just going to take it one game at a time, that's always been our mindset here," Matt LaFleur

The Packers can’t let up, even if they secure a playoff spot on Monday night. Finishing as the seventh seed would likely mean facing the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles in January. That’s a much tougher path than facing the NFC West or NFC South champion in the Wild Card, where Vegas would likely favor Green Bay.

The Packers are fighting for playoff seeding. They currently hold the sixth spot but can climb to fifth. They must beat the New Orleans Saints and rely on the Vikings losing at least one of their next two games, either at home against the eliminated Bears or on the road against the Seahawks. Minnesota will face a tough challenge in Seattle because the Seahawks are battling for their division title and cannot afford consecutive losses.

Week 17 in Minnesota will largely determine Green Bay's approach to Week 18. Even if the Vikings beat the Bears and Seahawks but lose to the Packers, they would still hold the edge due to a better conference record. There's a realistic scenario where the Packers have nothing to play for when Chicago visits in the final week. However, if the Vikings lose a game, the Packers could tie them in the standings. In Week 18, Minnesota travels to Detroit to face the Lions, who might still be fighting to secure the No. 1 seed.

Given that Minnesota is a potential playoff opponent, it’s reasonable to expect Green Bay to play its starters through Week 17. Players like Josh Jacobs might see a lighter workload, and the Packers would be wise to keep Jaire Alexander on the sideline to allow him to heal.

Green Bay has plenty to address over the final three weeks, particularly their recurring struggles in sustaining pace after strong starts. Against the Seahawks, Jacobs averaged 5.2 yards per carry in the first half but dropped to 3.6 by the end of the game. The offense produced only three second-half points until Romeo Doubs' second receiving touchdown, which Edgerrin Cooper's interception set up.

Jordan Love acknowledged that the offense has to be better for the rest of the season:

Player development should also be a focus for the Packers. As the youngest team in the league, late-season games provide valuable opportunities for long-term growth. While it’s unclear if LaFleur would consider benching starters, resting Love could be worthwhile, given his knee and groin injuries this season.

However, the risk of rust must be carefully considered, and the Packers must balance those considerations. Doing so would also give Malik Willis another opportunity to increase his trade value.

Green Bay must avoid repeating past mistakes. In 2021, they played their starters for the first half of the regular-season finale but lost 13-10 to the San Francisco 49ers two weeks later, with the offense managing just 10 points. In 2011, after clinching the No. 1 seed and being the league's most dominant team, they rested starters in Week 17, only to lose by three scores to the New York Giants in the divisional round.

If LaFleur rests his starters, he must ensure that he and the coaching staff have a plan to keep everyone physically and mentally engaged. The Packers can compete with anyone in the conference, but they must be sharp come playoff time.