What Are Reasonable Expectations For Collin Oliver?

When Micah Parsons suffered a torn ACL that put an abrupt end to his season, it was universally understood that replacing him would be impossible for any one individual. Among the group trying to account for his absence is rookie Collin Oliver, whom the Green Bay Packers activated on Monday.

What are reasonable expectations for Oliver, making his pro debut in a critical game?

Oliver suffered a hamstring injury during training camp that was severe enough that it required surgery. He was a fifth-round pick who played just two games his final year at Oklahoma State due to a foot injury. So, immediately, you're talking about a rookie fifth-round pick who hasn't played a down in the NFL yet and has played two games total dating back to the end of the 2023 season.

Oliver has the potential to be a versatile chess piece on the board. At Oklahoma State, he played on the edge and off the ball at inside linebacker. When head coach Matt LaFleur was asked earlier in the month where Oliver would line up for Green Bay, there was no hesitation.

“It’s at defensive end,” LaFleur said. “He’s missed a lot of football. Just to see how he responds to getting in there and how he does, the more quickly he acclimates, the role could grow.”

Once Parsons went down for the season, coupled with the rest of the group at defensive end not doing a whole hell of a lot, the idea of giving Oliver a shot became increasingly appealing.

Oliver may get the green light Saturday against the Baltimore Ravens, but he isn't leapfrogging the likes of Rashan Gary, Lukas Van Ness, Kingsley Enagbare, or Brenton Cox Jr. The activation of Oliver puts Green Bay at seven defensive ends on its current 53-man roster. Quantity is clearly the name of the game for defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley in trying to find solutions without Parsons.

It’s unrealistic to expect Oliver to get heavy snaps immediately. This isn't a first-round pick making his long-awaited debut. Even if it was, the Packers usually do a lot of hand-holding with rookies, even first-round picks (see: Matthew Golden).

This is a rookie who was selected in a later round and has played two games in the last two years. Sure, it's fun to imagine what Oliver could do with his twitchy frame. He did rack up 134 total quarterback pressures in four years at Oklahoma State, and one of those seasons was significantly truncated by injury.

However, this is the big leagues, and the Packers desperately need to win one of their final two games to get to the postseason. The idea that Oliver would come in and immediately take over snaps from some of the top dogs, despite their struggles, is foolish.

Consider a player like Brenton Cox Jr.

Cox had four sacks, five tackles for loss, and seven quarterback hits in just seven games last year. After the trade of Preston Smith, Cox was brilliant for Hafley's defense. Cox suffered a groin injury this year in Week 1 and just returned last week for the first time since the opener. He logged just 18 snaps, 28% of the total on defense. And that's a player with a proven track record. Cox’s totals should go up, but even with his résumé from last year, the Packers eased him back into things.

I'm not suggesting Oliver can't or won't produce, or that he'll be a dud of a draft pick. Still, thrilling as it would be, we shouldn’t expect him to be a spark plug for Green Bay's edge-rushing group down the stretch. Consistency and competence would be enough for now.

There's a lot of pressure for the group to step up in Parsons' absence, especially given Gary's increasingly notorious streak of eight consecutive games with zero sacks and zero tackles for loss. Heck, Enagbare led the group against the Chicago Bears with 43 snaps. That was six more than what Gary saw.

It will have to be a group effort the rest of the way, and that group can include Oliver to some extent. But even expecting him to see 10 or 15 snaps per game down the stretch feels pretty far off the mark. Let's not set unfair expectations.