Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 12/31

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Atlanta Hawks Over 243.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

Ok guys, lets really focus on defense here before going clubbing in Atlanta for New Year’s Eve. Yeah, that’s not happening, probably not even for this Wolves team that actually can defend when it wants to. The Hawks on the other hand can’t stop a nosebleed, giving up 130.9 points per game over their past 11 contests.

Things get even worse for them on defense when Trae Young is in the lineup, but he’s missed plenty of time in that 11 game stretch so it’s a team-wide issue. Atlanta is also expected to get Kristaps Porzingis back today, whose skillset can torment Rudy Gobert so the Wolves defense is vulnerable as well. But I refuse to believe that either team is particularly interested in defensive effort on New Year’s Eve, so look for this high total to cleared easily.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Toronto Raptors Team Total Over 117.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TSN

The Raptors should be able to accidentally score 120 points in this game given the situation Denver is in now. The Nuggets might try to make a valiant effort to compensate for Nikola Jokic going down last game, but their defense was already a major problem as they’ve given up 122.4 regulation points per game the past 8 outings.

Things started to get bad once they became so shorthanded in the backcourt, and even though Jokic isn’t much of a defender, the Nuggets will miss his rebounding. Toronto’s roster of athletic wings and forwards should be a nightmare for Denver to try and defend, and it’s possible the Nuggets let go of the rope a little here given the situation, so I think the Raptors can cruise to a big output.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) UConn -11.5 @ Xavier (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:00 PM CT on Peacock

This is the perfect matchup for UConn on both ends of the floor, and should result in a runaway for them. The Huskies are built to shut down what Xavier wants to do in Richard Pitino’s system that relies very heavily on three-point shooting. Dan Hurley preaches three-point defense and it’s working so far, as the Huskies are allowing the 4th-lowest three-point percentage in the country.

And the UConn offense should feast here, as they prefer to slow things down and get to the rim for easy buckets. The Musketeers won’t be able to stop it, as they allow the 15th-highest split of points to come via the two and UConn’s elite bigs are tough for anyone to defend. If Xavier can’t produce offensively and gets shredded on the other end of the floor, this will turn into a beatdown in a hurry. The Musketeers already had one high level Big East team visit Cincinnati and they lost by 40 to Creighton, so things could get ugly today.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 32-33 (-0.10 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.