Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 12/30

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics Team Total Over 124.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on KJZZ

The Jazz have accidentally won a couple games in a row against quality competition, so this might get interesting. But it’s tough to go broke betting on them to give up points, especially at home, and I think that continues tonight. Utah is surrendering 127.1 points per game this season, which jumps to 129.5 in Salt Lake City, and everyone seems to be taking advantage as their past 8 home opponents have cleared this total.

Boston is not going to be able to avoid the frenetic pace Utah plays with and the lack of defense is just too easy to exploit, especially for a high-volume three-point shooting team like the Celtics up against the league’s 28th-ranked perimeter defense. With Jaylen Brown going absolutely nuts on a nightly basis and the Celtics in a bounce back spot, look for them to clear this big number like everyone seems to do.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Sacramento Kings @ LA Clippers -9.5 (-115; Odds via DraftKings): 10:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA

These are two of the worst ATS teams in the league, with only Cleveland owning a worse record against the number, but at least the Clippers are headed in the right direction. With four straight dominant wins, a 7-3 ATS record in their past 10 games, and Kawhi Leonard looking like vintage Kawhi, this team is fairly dangerous. I think they’re still priced at a discount though, especially against a pitiful squad like the Kings who are too banged up to compete with a team on the rise. I’m buying that the momentum from the Clips is real, and that makes this a buy-low spot on them considering Sacramento is typically priced as a double-digit dog against quality competition.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Florida St @ North Carolina -14.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

I think UNC starts off conference play with a statement here, as one of the weaker ACC teams comes to town. It’s going to be a long way back for Florida State, who has struggled against any kind of quality competition so far this season. The Seminoles have faced 5 teams in the top-65 of KenPom, going 0-5 straight up and 1-4 ATS in those games, while losing by an average margin of 23 points.

The Noles are going to struggle again here because their style on offense runs right into the strength of the Tar Heels defense. FSU wants to jack up a ton of three’s as the country’s 18th-most reliant offense on three-point production, but UNC is 13th in three-point percentage defense. This defensive metamorphosis for the Heels is real, they’ve held down much better offenses than this all season, so flexing that and their size advantage here will allow them to run away with this game.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Seton Hall/Marquette First Half Under 68.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on FS1

There’s been a good amount of over money coming in on this game, and I simply have to disagree with the move. I’ll take the added cushion though, because I see this one as an ugly slog of a game which is exactly what Seton Hall wants. The Pirates are one of the country’s best teams at grinding a game to a halt, with a slow tempo and the country’s 13th-ranked defense in adjusted efficiency. They also hardly take any three’s, so quick points won’t be coming that way.

Marquette wants to get out and run much more than Seton Hall, but the Pirates just won’t allow it as their transition and two-point defensive numbers are just too good. The Golden Eagles are in a down season, having real trouble shooting at 279th in effective field goal percentage, and not scoring well against any decent defenses. In a tightly lined game though I’d rather avoid late foul game points, and with Hall being 17th in first half points allowed I’ll take that route here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Tennessee St/Tennessee Tech Over 152.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN+

This game could easily turn into a layup line and parade to the free throw stripe, which I think leads to a lot of easy points. Both of these teams want to get out and run, especially Tennessee State who is 37th in adjusted tempo this season, and both offenses know who they are. Both squads have a tough time shooting from distance so they don’t try very much, instead pushing in transition and looking to get to the rim.

Their defenses aren’t particularly good at stopping that style either, and neither team can keep their hands to themselves. State is especially handsy, committing the 21st-most fouls in the country, and both teams are well above average in free throw shooting. So layups and free throws piling up in this game should send it over a total that’s below the metrics site projections.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 32-36 (-1.29 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.