Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 12/29

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Atlanta Falcons Team Total Over 20.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on ABC

The Rams have a good defense, statistically anyway, as they rank top-10 in EPA/play and success rate allowed this season. But you have to be concerned about what they’ve done the past 4 weeks, giving up 30-plus in 3 of those games since Thanksgiving. I think they’re road game defense is also a cause for concern, allowing 23.9 PPG in true road contests while not exactly facing a murderer’s row of offenses in those games.

Atlanta has always had the pieces, and therefore a ton of potential on offense, it just never seems to click. Well surprisingly, Kirk Cousins taking over has caused some things to click, and they’ve gone over this team total in 4 of the 5 straight games he’s started. Cousins is even getting Kyle Pitts to lead the team in receiving for three of those games, which just shows how different things have been. The Falcons will need to score to keep up with this LA offense led by the presumptive MVP, and I think the Rams are just vulnerable enough to let Atlanta get over their team total here.

Bonus Monday Night Football Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Kirk Cousins Over 1.5 Passing TD’s (+145)

0.75 Unit – Blake Corum Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Bijan Robinson Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Puka Nacua Over 8.5 Receptions (+110)

NBA (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks/Charlotte Hornets First Quarter Over 58.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports WI

If the Hornets are playing at home, I’m interested in the first quarter potentially going over, it’s just that simple. This team can really score when they’re relatively healthy, and at home they’re averaging 32.1 first quarter points which puts them third in the league. Charlotte can’t guard much of anything though no matter where they play, with a bottom-5 defensive rating and effective field goal percentage allowed.

So Milwaukee should be able to score early themselves, as they’ve done in both meetings so far this season. The first quarters of those games hit 62 and 67 points despite very different results on the full-game total, and despite Giannis only playing in one of them. Where Charlotte is not healthy is inside, so Giannis should be able to go wild in the paint, but I don’t have a lot of faith in the Bucks defense either and see a high-scoring start as a result.

NBA (1 Unit) Miami Heat Team Total Over 122.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Sun

If a team with any sort of a pulse offensively is playing the Nuggets right now, I’m expecting them to score a lot of points. That’s how bad things look for Denver as they’re incredibly shorthanded on the perimeter, and we all know the lack of defense they have inside thanks to Nikola Jokic’s limitations. If Jokic wasn’t Superman and able to carry this team, they’d be in serious trouble, but the defensive issues remain.

I think they really show up tonight, as they’re not just facing any team with an offensive pulse, but a Heat squad that can really fill it up. This is a terrible matchup for a Nuggets team that is so shorthanded, especially in the backcourt, as Miami loves to run and scores the most points in transition in the league. They’ll also get Bam Adebayo back tonight who got hurt early in the first meeting, and his scoring ability against Jokic is a big key. The Nuggets are going to either push or drag the opponent’s scoring upwards thanks to their elite offense, but this looks like a great spot for them to give up another big number.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) McNeese St @ Michigan -23.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on B1G+

The only way McNeese hangs in this game is if Michigan has a holiday hangover or the Wolverines are looking ahead to conference play starting Friday. I don’t believe either of those will be the case though, as this team is on a mission and Dusty May has them absolutely rolling. You can’t go against them at home either, as they’re 4-1 ATS in true home games and won all 5 by at least this margin.

I’m also not understanding the love for McNeese, who hasn’t faced a tough schedule at all but keeps climbing the KenPom rankings. Michigan has faced a gauntlet of elite teams, and keeps beating everyone by 40 so I’m seeing a disconnect in the power rating here. McNeese also gives up a ton of production from deep, and the Wolverines have been incredibly deadly from three during this run of crushing everyone. I think they continue to get whatever they want and the talent disparity makes this another laugher.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Yale/Alabama Over 175.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on SECN+

This big number shouldn’t be an issue with how well these teams shoot it. Alabama wants to get into a three-point contest with everyone as all 5 players on the court at any time are a threat to pop from deep. That suits Yale just fine, as the Bulldogs are second nationally in three-point percentage and should be able to respond to the barrage Bama puts on everyone.

Yale doesn’t want to play at the same pace as the Tide, but they probably won’t have any choice in this true road game. Plus, the last time Yale went up against a team that loves to run and shoot three’s, they got into a 97-94 shootout with Akron. I’ve only see Alabama look good defensively twice this season, and both times happened to come against opponents in the bottom-40 of adjusted offensive efficiency. Yale ranks 20th so they’ll be able to put up plenty of points in this one, probably keep it closer than it should be, and help push over the big total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Queens/Auburn Over 171.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on SEC Network

On the other side of Alabama, this one should also be a shootout. Auburn doesn’t have the firepower of their in-state rival, but they have plenty to score at will against a Queens team that can’t stop anything from higher-level programs. The Royals have stepped up in class 4 times to face teams in the top-60 of KenPom, and they’ve given up at least 94 every time and 101.8 on average.

Queens also just got a taste of SEC speed and talent last week when Arkansas beat them 108-80, and they’ll get an angry version of Auburn tonight. The Tigers were run out in their last game and have had plenty of time to think about it, so I’m expecting them to be out for blood and running up the score. But this Queens squad is fun when they’re hitting three’s, and Auburn has been leaky at 202nd in three-point percentage allowed. So I see a path to plenty of points for both teams, and that should clear this high total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 40-51 (-6.44 Units) – Recommend: Fade

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.