Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/28

Locks

NFL/NCAA Football (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Arizona Cardinals @ LA Rams -0.5: 7:00 PM CT on NFL Network

With the NFC West title within reach, I think we get another dominant December game out of Sean McVay’s Rams tonight. In his past 17 December games, McVay has led the Rams to a 15-2 ATS record so he knows how to finish the season strong. The key the past couple of weeks after their shootout with Buffalo has been the defense rounding into form, and they’ll need it today against a Cardinals team playing with nothing to lose.

But the Rams have also dominated Arizona in McVay’s tenure, going 12-3-1 ATS against the Cards, while Kyler Murray is just 2-8 straight up against LA in his starts. With this adjusted number just asking the Rams to win the game, I have confidence that they’ll come through with relative ease.

Iowa State/Miami Over 52.5: 2:30 PM CT on ABC

There has been massive steam to the over in this game, and by teasing the total I’m able to erase that and return to the opening number. That’s a number which was posted when there was plenty of uncertainty around the status of Miami quarterback Cam Ward, but he appears set to play today, as do most of his weapons. That will be key against an Iowa State defense that has been ugly at times down the stretch of the season, and if Ward is motivated to put on a show for the draft, I don’t have much confidence that my Clones can slow him down.

But the Miami defense has been notoriously leaky all season, failing to ever get a stop in a key moment which is why they’re in the Pop Tarts Bowl and not the CFP. The expectation for ISU is that the star wide receiver duo of Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel will play today, and I’d expect them to torch that poor Hurricane defense. This has the look of a true shootout that probably clears the steamed-up number, but I feel much better with the adjusted total that’s below a couple of key numbers.

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Army -7.5 First Half vs Louisiana Tech (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:15 PM CT on ESPN

One last chance to back Army to have a great first half against a cupcake opponent. The Black Knights made a living off dominating bad teams early in games to start this season, building up one of the best average first half margins in the country before the competition got better late in the year. But what better way to get back to that early success than against a team like LA Tech, who didn’t even qualify for bowl season but were added due to Marshall not having enough players.

The Bulldogs will also be missing two starters on the defensive line and more in the linebacker room, so facing the Army option will be extremely difficult. LA Tech ranked 86th in rushing explosiveness allowed this season, which looks even worse considering how many weak run games there are in Conference USA. Army has been extremely consistent this season in putting up points on their first two possessions, and I think that leads to an easy cover of this first half number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +72.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.