Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 12/25

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) @ Washington Commanders: 12:00 PM CT on Netflix

If the Cowboys have any pride whatsoever, they should dominate the Commanders who are trotting out their third string QB today. Josh Johnson will get the start, and as bad as the Dallas defense has been, the aging journeyman should not be able to keep up here. The Cowboys should be able to do whatever they want against one of the league's worst defenses that has given up 91 points in the past 3 weeks against much lesser offenses. Dallas can certainly score, and Dak has dominated not only the NFC East but this matchup in general, so just covering 1.5 points isn’t asking a lot.

Detroit Lions (-0.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: 3:30 PM CT on Netflix

I mean come on, it’s Max Brosmer again. The Lions are definitely not the Lions of recent years, but if they can’t come into US Bank Stadium and dominate this game in a must-win scenario, then shame on me for backing them. What we saw of Brosmer in that Seattle game isn’t likely to be as bad today against a vulnerable defense, but I still don’t see him producing much behind a very banged-up offensive line. The Vikings defense will probably shine in the passing game again, but they’ve been more susceptible to running attacks than anything. Detroit should ground and pound their way to a desperately-needed victory today.

Denver Broncos (-6.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs: 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

I’m sensing a theme here, aren’t you? This is the third home team with nothing to play for and putting a third-stringer under center, and the third instance I’m going against that recipe for disaster. Honestly I might be watching Stranger Things when this game is on, it should be that uncompetitive. The Broncos have suffered for years at the hands of KC, and this weakened version starting Chris Oladokun at QB is ripe for Denver to get some revenge. I know Sean Payton is that kind of guy too, so the Broncos might run this up, but I really don’t see how the Chiefs even score in this situation. They’ve also placed several key players on IR ahead of this game, a sure sign they’ll be putting up minimal effort tonight, so I’m sure Al Michaels will love spending his Christmas watching this beatdown.

NFL Christmas Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Josh Johnson Over 186.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – George Pickens Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Javonte Williams Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jared Goff Under 1.5 Passing TD’s (+100)

0.5 Unit – Jahmyr Gibbs Under 33.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jahmyr Gibbs Under 4.5 Receptions (-110)

0.25 Unit – Travis Kelce Over 4.5 Receptions (+110)

0.25 Unit – Courtland Sutton Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

NBA (0.5 Unit) Anthony Edwards Over 30.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:30 PM CT on ABC

This number is back up to where it had been lined for most games before his short absence for injury. After dropping 38 on the Knicks on Tuesday, Ant seems to be at full strength and should be able to have another good game tonight. The Nuggets can’t defend anything right now, especially on the perimeter with all their backcourt injuries, so Edwards has a good opportunity in what should be a high-scoring game overall. He’s also promised big things for this showcase game, and if you’re doing commercials as “AntaClaus” you’d better deliver on Christmas.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 28-33 (-1.79 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.