Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 12/23

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Julius Randle Over 1.5 Made Three’s (-115; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North

I love a good revenge game, and Randle does too. The first meeting between these teams back in early November saw Randle knock down three from deep on his way to 32 points, and more of the same could be coming here. He’ll be in his typical ball-hog attack mode as he looks to make a statement against his former squad, and the volume should definitely be there. The Knicks struggle to contain perimeter shooting, allowing the 2nd-highest three-point rate and ranking 20th in the league for percentage allowed. With Randle being aggressive, I think he can hit a couple from long range in this game.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Donte DiVincenzo Over 3.5 Made Three’s (+115; Odds via DraftKings)

Ditto for Donte. He might be even more fiery than Randle, and certainly has gotten in his feelings against the Knicks in the past, including that first meeting where he hit 5 from downtown. He’s also been a very high-volume shooter recently, leading to him going over this number in 9 of the past 13 games. Keep that volume up against this Knicks defense, mix in some revenge, and Donte should get over this number at a juicy return.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Washington Wizards/Charlotte Hornets First Quarter Over 60.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on MNMT

It can be tough to trust bad teams like these to do good things for you, but I’m just looking for them to continue doing bad things. Defensively that is, as both the Wizards and Hornets are tied for the second-most first quarter points allowed in the league. Putting two defenses that don’t care, won’t try, and are looking forward to their Christmas break on the floor should not result in a lot of effort.

So this just requires a little more offense out of Washington, since when the Hornets are at home they’re actually third in the league for scoring in opening quarters. I think the Wizards can make that contribution, as Charlotte is depleted down low and Washington likes to score inside, so I think there’s a path to plenty of early points in this one.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/Utah Jazz Over 243.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on KJZZ

Speaking of two teams looking ahead to vacation, these squads should have zero interest in defense tonight. The Jazz never do, as their atrocious defense was on display again last night in giving up 135 points, the seventh straight night they’ve given up 126 or more points. That includes a game in Memphis just 10 days ago that saw these teams combine for 256, which is actually a rarity for the Grizzlies.

Memphis is the worst team to the over in the NBA, but playing this Jazz squad throws records like that out the window, especially in Salt Lake City where Jazz games are crushing the over by 18.7 points on average. The Grizzlies are just an average defensive team too, and take a significant step down without Zach Edey patrolling the paint. With both teams on a back-to-back with travel and being off until Friday after this, I think they go up and down the floor without a care for defense to clear this high total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 30-30 (+0.61 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.