Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 12/22

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) San Francisco 49ers First Half Team Total Over 13 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on ABC

What the Colts defense did last week in holding down Seattle’s offense in a nearly historic upset was impressive. I don’t buy the sustainability of it though, and I think they’ll get exposed in this spot by a red-hot 49ers offense.

Indianapolis was fortunate to catch the Seahawks looking past them to Thursday night’s classic against the Rams, but I don’t see the same attitude coming from San Fran tonight. The Colts also benefited in that game from Seattle having to settle for 6 field goals, which also shouldn’t happen again here.

The 49ers have a clear path to the top seed in the NFC, so they’ll be focused here, and their offense is one of the best in the league at converting red zone trips into touchdowns. They’ll have a gameplan in place to take advantage of Indy’s decimated secondary, and should be aggressive early in this game. That leads me to expect plenty of first half scoring from them against a weak defense, and I see two touchdowns coming relatively easily.

Bonus MNF Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.75 Unit – George Kittle Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Philip Rivers Longest Completion Under 27.5 Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Christian McCaffrey Over 1.5 Touchdowns (+265)

NBA (1 Unit) Utah Jazz/Denver Nuggets First Half Over 120.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude

The full game total here is steadily approaching 250 points, which honestly I think these teams could clear tonight. But the first half total is not rising in a way that it should along with the full game number, creating value here. Oddsmakers usually make the first half less than half of the full number to account for late foul game points and/or overtime, but let’s be honest about how this game will transpire.

It will not be close enough for foul game to come into play or even sniff the possibility of overtime, as the Nuggets should be taking out some frustrations after a tough loss on Saturday. That’s why there’s a 13.5 point spread, and I think the Nuggets running it up early will create the first half scoring I’m looking for here. Utah’s defense is approaching historical levels of bad, and putting it up against the league’s top-rated offense is going to be ugly. But the Jazz can score too, will really push tempo, and should have Lauri Markkanen back tonight, so I expect a dynamic first half with a ton of scoring.

NBA (0.5 Unit) OKC Thunder Team Total Over 123.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on Peacock

Congratulations to the Wolves for handing OKC their third loss of the season, but RIP to the team the Thunder face next. The opponent might not even matter if OKC is out for blood, which I expect them to be after the kind of game that unfolded at Target Center on Friday night. The Thunder have had a couple days to stew over the loss, and to get their three-point shooting right after that cost them in their past two losses.

That’s the key for them, and fortunately they’re facing a Memphis squad that is 22nd in three-point percentage allowed on the road. The Grizzlies will likely push tempo, and also don’t have Zach Edey to patrol the paint so I see the Thunder being able to score inside and out. With this being another national TV spot for OKC, expect a maximum effort and for them to clear this team total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) East Carolina/UNC Under 144.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ACC Network

This is the slowest-paced UNC team of the Hubert Davis era at 238th in adjusted tempo, and the market is only gradually realizing it. This is a lower total by today’s standards, but one that I think these squads will still stay under based on the type of game I see unfolding. ECU just isn’t going to score, and they’re going to get forced into long, unsuccessful possessions by the UNC defense that is forcing the 12th-longest opponent possessions.

The Heels are just a really good defense right now, ranked 23rd in adjusted efficiency, and ECU bringing the country’s 329th offense in adjusted efficiency is going to be trouble. The Pirates can’t shoot from deep and don’t bother trying, but UNC is 2nd nationally in two-point percentage defense so they’ll shut ECU down. But if the Heels aren’t running, they aren’t scoring too much either, which has been the case all season. UNC is now 10-2 to the under this season, with the country’s 3rd-lowest plus/minus to the total, and I think they stay under this one as well.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) IU Indy/Grand Canyon Over 169.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on MWN

This is entirely based on IU Indy and how they play their road games. The Jaguars are playing insane games in general, running at the fastest tempo in the country and having already given up triple digits four times thanks to being 357th in adjusted defensive efficiency. But it’s the home/road splits that get my attention, as their home games have actually been relatively tame compared to when they’re away from Indianapolis.

Their road or neutral site games have averaged 187.6 points this season, with all 7 of them clearing tonight’s total. That’s compared to their home games averaging just 160.5 points and going 3-1 under this total, so environment matters. Grand Canyon has shown a willingness to run in some spots this season, and they won’t have a choice with how Indy plays. The Lopes have a good offense that knows how to get to the hoop for easy buckets and free throws, so points should pile up in a hurry that way, and I think we can clear this big number tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 33-26 (+5.85 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.