Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 12/19

Locks

College Football Playoff (0.75 Unit) Alabama @ Oklahoma ML (-115; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ABC

I just don’t trust this Alabama team right now, and I think their SEC title game performance was not a fluke at all. Something is very wrong with Ty Simpson, either health-wise, confidence-wise or both, and that completely breaks the Alabama offense. The Tide can’t run the ball when Simpson is at his best, with or without Jam Miller available in the backfield, so coming into this game one-dimensional with a damaged QB could be disastrous.

Oklahoma and their elite defense have been waiting for Alabama here, with plenty of time to prep and get John Mateer healthier while the Tide had to play in that embarrassment that was the SEC championship. The Sooners already put the clamps on this offense back when it was functioning at a high level, in Tuscaloosa, so a home game in the CFP at night will make things very tough for Bama here. Because of OU’s offensive issues it’s very possible this is a tight one, but I’ll take the home team with the elite defense and the best kicker in the country to move Boomer Sooner on to the next round.

NBA (0.75 Unit) OKC Thunder Team Total Over 119.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on Prime Video

Let’s run it back with the Thunder tonight, even though they’re taking on the Wolves. The total in this game shot up after holding steady around 225, pushing OKC’s team total up considerably with it. With the spread not moving at all, it’s probably not inside info about Anthony Edwards’ status, but more likely smart money seeing the Thunder get their feet under them last night.

It took a little while for the offense to finally click, but the avalanche came eventually like it always does. There’s just no stopping this team, even for the Wolves with a strong defense since they did manage to hold the Thunder to 113 in the first meeting. But that was OKC’s last game without Jalen Williams, and since his return they’re averaging 125.7 PPG on 52.6% shooting. The Thunder team total just seems like the safest bet in the league right now, and while I hope they don’t torch my Wolves, it might be inevitable.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Chicago Bulls Team Total Over 116.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on Fanduel Sports OH

I would be looking at the first quarter total here under normal circumstances, but it’s possible Donovan Mitchell misses this game with an illness. So I’ll count on scoring, just isolated to the Bulls here who have already proven themselves against this Cavaliers team. In the two meetings already this season, Chicago has flown over this team total with 122 and 127 points, using their breakneck pace to exploit the shorthanded Cavs.

If Mitchell sits tonight, joining Evan Mobley and other key players on the sideline, then Chicago is probably in line to win this game outright. But either way I’m seeing a disappointing Cleveland defense that’s just around league average in most scoring metrics, and the way the Bulls play is going to continue to give them problems tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 40-22 (+6.95 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.