Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 12/18

Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 6.5 Receptions (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video

I was pretty surprised to see this number come in where it is, and not be juiced to the moon which is often the case with JSN’s receptions prop. But I think there are a few factors that show he’s going to clear this total tonight in a massive game for both teams. First off, he’s gone over this number in all but 4 games this season, and in every game where he’s gotten at least 9 targets. I think the targets piece is another key tonight, as the Seahawks won’t be afraid to dare LA to stop their elite wideout.

JSN was targeted 12 times in the first meeting just over a month ago, catching 9 passes in a game where Sam Darnold threw 4 interceptions so it could’ve been an even bigger day for him. The passing game tonight is going to be interesting with the windy conditions, but I think that actually allows JSN to get shorter, easier catches. The Rams are a good statistical pass defense overall, but they’re just average in completion percentage allowed, so I think JSN can have a busy night and I’ll back this prop instead of yardage.

NBA (1 Unit) OKC Thunder Team Total Over 119.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBA TV

I have an unhealthy love for this pick. Honestly, what are oddsmakers thinking making this number so low? The Thunder might have finally lost a game, and finally gone under their team total with Jalen Williams in the lineup, but this number is lower than where it’s been the past several games and I’d argue that it should’ve been raised.

OKC is going to come back with a vengeance in this game after losing to the Spurs, a game in which they had very uncharacteristic three-point shooting that led to the loss. And if you think the Clippers can slow them down think again, as they didn’t in the first meeting where OKC dropped 126 in LA well before Williams came back.

This Clippers team has an unwarranted reputation as a defensive team, but they’re 26th in defensive efficiency and dead last in three-point percentage allowed. They’re the perfect victim for the Thunder to bounce back against, make it rain from deep, and fly over their team total.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Houston Rockets Team Total Over 122.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on GCSN

Now this is more of where I thought the Thunder’s team total would come in, and for the record, I still would’ve loved the over on that. I only strongly like the over with this one, but there’s plenty of reason for optimism. The Pelicans stink defensively, which anyone with eyes can tell you since they’re 29th in defensive efficiency and allowing 122.8 PPG, but the specific way they stink defensively gives the Rockets a big advantage tonight.

New Orleans is dead last in two-point percentage allowed, giving up a ton of easy points at the rim and inside the arc. That’s perfect for a Houston team that really shies away from the three-ball, leading the league in two-point rate and ranking 5th in shooting percentage. Those easy buckets will pile up, especially against this Pelicans defense that is even worse at home for some reason, giving up 126.8 the past 6 games at Smoothie King, and another should be coming here.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Sacramento Kings Team Total Under 114.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA

It’s tough to look at anything under the total in a Blazers game right now, but I think the number on Sacramento here is inflated because of how Portland’s games have been going. It’s a sky-high full game total tonight, which creates opportunity to go under on a Kings team only averaging 110.8 PPG on the season and is 17-9 under this total in regulation. That’s only gotten worse since Domantas Sabonis went out, scoring a meager 107.1 in the 12 games he’s missed.

Along with Zach LaVine being out, the Kings are sorely missing their scoring punch, and I don’t see them being able to elevate things tonight. This is a matchup where they’re just not able to exploit Portland’s big defensive weakness on the perimeter, as the Kings are 29th in three-point attempts and don’t shoot them well when they try. Scoring inside on the Blazers is going to get tougher as Portland is getting healthier down low with Donovan Clingan and Robert Williams returning, so look for the Kings to fall short of this number again.

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball Georgia Team Total Over 100.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on SECN+

It’s pretty rare to see a college team total actually cross into triple digits, but this is probably warranted. Georgia is insane this season, and they’re tearing non-conference cupcakes into pieces with regularity. The Bulldogs have scored in the hundreds four times already this season, and they do it in a way that Western Carolina won’t be able to stop tonight.

Georgia doesn’t bother much with the three-ball, but they want to run straight to the rim for a layup every chance they get. They’re playing at the 6th-fastest adjusted tempo in the country, and have the best two-point percentage in the country, so that formula is working. WCU will have no problem running up-tempo tonight, they rank 300th in two-point percentage allowed, and the Catamounts have a fouling problem at 282nd in fouls per game. Layups and free throws are high-percentage ways to rack up points, and that’s exactly what I expect Georgia to do tonight.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 40-23 (+5.95 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.