Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/18

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Toledo @ Houston -17 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I won’t be letting Houston slip under the radar this season, and this first half angle with them is as potent as ever. The Cougars played a tough early schedule and it took a toll, but they’ve bounced back with a pair of dominant wins at home. Being at home is always the key for them, especially with this first half angle, as they’ve averaged a 25.4 point average first half margin in true home games against mid-major opponents, best in the nation.

I think they crush Toledo tonight because of one key matchup taking place inside the arc. The Rockets want to score inside as three-point shooting really isn’t a part of their offense this season, but they’re up against the country’s best two-point percentage defense. I think Houston continues to clamp down defensively in their own building, and push to a big lead before half tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Samford/Arizona Over 167.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Arizona is going to be angry in this game after losing a close one to UCLA on Saturday where their preferred up-tempo style was stifled. They’ve been in this situation so many times in the Tommy Lloyd era that it has become fairly predictable – returning home to play a mid-major cupcake after losing to a power conference opponent. These situations have never turned out well for the mid-major team in the position Samford is in, but the Bulldogs will make this game interesting.

There will be no stifling of up-tempo styles tonight as both teams enter with a top-25 adjusted tempo. And each team’s preferred scoring style matches the other team’s defensive weakness. Arizona wants to score inside where Samford is 294th defensively, while the Bulldogs launch a ton of three’s which the Wildcats are only 209th in defending. Arizona has also averaged 100.3 PPG against four mid-major opponents this season, so a repeat of that will create a nice floor for getting this game over the big total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Nicholls St/Gonzaga First Half Over 73.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I’ve already applied general principle situational spots to two games tonight, so why not another. Gonzaga games against mid-major cupcakes in The Kennel usually turn into runaways, and the beatdown typically starts early with an outburst from the Zags. They’re perennially a top-5 scoring team in first halves, especially at home where they’ve liked to run it up early and coast late under Mark Few.

And Gonzaga should be in a foul mood tonight after dropping consecutive tough games to Kentucky and UConn, so they’ll be looking to take out frustrations on an outmatched opponent. Nicholls won’t be able to stop anything once the country’s second-best offensive efficiency team gets rolling, and it will be necessary for Gonzaga to do the vast majority of the scoring here. But the Zags regularly get into the 50’s before halftime by themselves in spots like this, and that will create the conditions necessary to clear a relatively lower total compared to the full-game number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +75.3 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.