Locks
NCAA Football (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)
Old Dominion (+8.5) vs South Florida: 4:00 PM CT on ESPN
The dying breed that is bowl season will show us why it’s on life support today, as South Florida enters this game looking far different than the team that was competing for a CFP spot this year. Head coach Alex Golesh is on to bigger and better things at Auburn, elite quarterback Byrum Brown has opted out, as have the two top receivers that made him a star this season. The Bulls defense is also suffering from injuries and opt-outs, so I think they’ll be in trouble today too.
Old Dominion will be up for this game though, as it’s not normal for the Monarchs to be playing at this time of year at all. They can really run the ball behind two dynamic running backs, and while QB Colton Joseph hit the transfer portal, backup Quinn Henicle is just as good with his legs. That run game should allow ODU to control this one, especially if the USF offense struggles behind Gaston Moore. The spread of this one opened at 7.5 so I’ll negate the steam towards ODU and get them with more than a full possession’s worth of points.
Delaware (+9) vs Louisiana: 7:30 PM CT on ESPN
Motivation matters a lot in college sports, and you can almost quantify the normally subjective angle for this game. Delaware is in their first season at the FBS level and made it to a bowl game, a pretty cool story for this program that is guaranteed to take this one seriously. The Blue Hens are a decent football team too, with a good QB in Nick Minicucci and a dynamic runner in Jo Silver that should gash this Louisiana defense.
The Ragin’ Cajuns by comparison will be far less motivated, limping into bowl season a year after winning the conference. This team was incredibly lucky to win their last 4 games to qualify for a bowl, getting outgained in 3 of them and shredded for 500-plus yards in two of them. I think Delaware is capable of creating the big plays that caused UL so much trouble, while I don’t see the Hens giving those up to a mediocre offense. So at catching almost double digits, I’ll back the team hungry for the program’s inaugural bowl game trophy.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Donovan Mitchell Alt Over 4.5 Made Three’s (+180; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on CHSN
Mitchell was obviously not happy about the Cavaliers losing a home game to the lowly Hornets their last time out. The whole team played poorly, but Mitchell was particularly bad, only managing 17 points on 6-of-24 shooting against a terrible defense. He also missed 10 of the 11 three’s he took in that game, so it’s time to expect a bounce back here.
Spida is second in the league for both makes and attempts from beyond the arc, so volume is no concern here at all. This also projects to be a perimeter-oriented game and the sky high total suggests a ton of scoring volume for a player like Mitchell. He’s already splashed 5 against the Bulls in the other meeting, and Chicago sits just 20th in three-point percentage allowed, so I’ll take a shot on this juicy alt number.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Gonzaga First Half Team Total Over 49.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+
It’s a tale as old as time: Gonzaga just eviscerates teams like this that come into The Kennel, and it always starts early. The Bulldogs historically run it up in the first half against these non-conference cupcakes, and typically slow things down late, making me much more interested in the first half numbers. They’ve already done it this season, averaging 52.7 first half points in their three home games against similar opponents.
What makes this situation particularly enticing is the matchup the Zags have against Campbell, who won’t be able to stop anything. The Camels play very fast which will be just fine with Gonzaga on their home floor. Those maximized possessions will allow Gonzaga to flex their interior muscle, as they get the 6th-highest split of points from inside the arc while Campbell is terrible at preventing two-point production. Easy buckets pile up quickly, and I see that as the path to another first half 50-burger from the Zags tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 41-25 (+5.85 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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