Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 12/16

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) NY Knicks -2.5 vs San Antonio Spurs (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on Prime Video

The Spurs slayed the dragon that is Oklahoma City, good for them. I think it’s telling that despite a win like that, and despite the most freakish player in the league returning for them, San Antonio is still an underdog tonight. I don’t think we’d even be talking about the Spurs here if OKC hadn’t had an uncharacteristically terrible night from beyond the arc in that game, which had nothing to do with a Spurs defense that is 25th in 3-point percentage allowed.

So a bit of a fluky win should get exposed by one of the best overall teams in the league, as the Knicks are arguably the best team in the East and have a case for second-best to the Thunder given their metrics. New York is extremely well-rounded, playing great ball on both ends of the floor, and have been running through teams lately with a 9-1 ATS run. This is a short number for a team of that caliber, held down by the intrigue of Wemby on the other side, but I think the Knicks cover this relatively easily.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Duke Team Total Over 92.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on ACC Network

Duke against a non-conference cupcake? Yes, please. I actually think the 32.5 point spread is a little oversized despite the Blue Devils winning all their cupcake games by at least that margin, since Lipscomb is the best of all those opponents yet. But Duke has been unstoppable offensively, clearing this number in every one of those games while putting up 100.4 on average.

This is also a Lipscomb team that is going to play at the fastest tempo of all those opponents, and fire away a ton of three’s. That will either create runout opportunities for Duke, or allow the Bison to push a little here and raise the scoring floor. Let’s not forget that Lipscomb has already faced one premier opponent this season, giving up 105 to Vanderbilt, and I think the Blue Devils sniff triple digits again here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Arizona Team Total Over 89.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This could be a bit of a letdown spot for Arizona after shredding two elite SEC teams in consecutive games. But with how this team is rolling right now, you just have to expect them to keep shredding everyone, especially with a non-conference cupcake in town. Abilene will try to slow things down in this game, but I don’t see them having an answer for the efficiency that Arizona will be able to have against their defense.

Arizona is one of the best inside-the-arc scoring teams in the country, using their elite size to bully even the top teams in the country much less an Abilene team that is 305th in size. ACU gives up a lot of short possessions defensively where teams get right to the rim, and that’s how I see Arizona running up the score here. The Wildcats are averaging 95.0 PPG at home this season, just put 97 on Auburn and 96 on Alabama, so they should be able to name their score in this one.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 40-26 (+5.33 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.