Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 12/15

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on ABC

After the Ravens dominated in Cincinnati yesterday, this becomes significantly more of a must-win situation for the Steelers tonight. With that being the case, it’s a good thing for them that this is Monday Night Football as they just don’t lose in this spot, especially at home.

Mike Tomlin has never lost a true Monday Night Football game in Pittsburgh, only losing once on a Monday back in 2020 when a Sunday game was rescheduled to Monday due to Covid rules. So if the Steelers are winning this game, I’m willing to lay the 3 points with that being such a common winning margin, even with Miami playing better lately.

But if you haven’t noticed, it’s damnably cold in the Midwest right now, and temps will be in the teens for kickoff here. That’s just not good for the guys from South Beach and the quarterback from Hawaii, as Tua Tagovailoa is 0-5 straight up and 1-4 ATS when it’s under 40 degrees. The Dolphins have lost those 5 games by an average of 19.2 points, and until these trends are proven wrong, Pittsburgh feels like the right side tonight.

Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.25 Unit – Darnell Washington Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Pat Freiermuth Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Darren Waller Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Jaylen Wright Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

NBA (0.75 Unit) Dallas Mavericks Team Total Over 120.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on KJZZ

This Dallas team is not the version ranked 26th in the league for scoring or 28th for offensive efficiency. Along with getting healthier, inserting Ryan Nembhard into the starting point guard role has revitalized this team, and they’ve averaged 119.1 PPG the past 7 games. With where they’re trending as an offense, they should be able to put a big number on this Utah defense that can’t stop anything.

The Jazz would be the worst defense in the league if the Wizards weren’t trying to set all-time records, allowing 127.8 PPG at home this season. Visiting teams are 9-4 over this team total on the year, and I think the Mavs are next to run up a big number. This is going to be a high-possessions game, with both teams top-5 in tempo, so points should be coming in general. If this was any team but Dallas with their season-long stats coming to town I’m sure the number would be much higher, so I’m buying in on what I see as a discount.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Alperen Sengun Over 20.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:30 PM CT on Altitude

I’m surprised to see this number come in below Sengun’s season average of 23.0 PPG. I was also surprised to see him only put up 14 points in the other meeting with Denver this season, so that’s likely contributing to the lower number here. Historically speaking, Sengun has always had good games against the Nuggets because he’s a tough matchup for Nikola Jokic, even getting the better of him in a few meetings in international play. This should be a good game though overall, with a tight spread and high total indicating that starters will get usage and scoring opportunities will be plentiful, so look for a better game out of Sengun tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 38-31 (+2.58 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.