Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 12/13

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) OKC Thunder Team Total Over 121.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Prime Video

Victor Wembanyama is trending towards playing in this game, and that has pushed the overall total upwards and therefore this team total. I still love it at this level for one main reason: the Thunder are yet to score below this number in 6 straight games which coincide with Jalen Williams returning to the team. This offense is just too dangerous with him, even if the defensive presence of Wemby makes things a little more difficult on them. OKC is also in another showcase spot tonight where I’m sure they’d like to show off their unstoppable offense, so I see them clearing this total once again.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Murray State/Akron Over 173 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 3:00 PM CT on BallerTV

This is a non-conference, neutral site game where two teams who love to run should get their wish. Akron is one of the fastest-paced teams in the country, and they love nothing more than getting up the floor to hoist a three. The Zips are deadly from there, shooting at the 4th-best percentage from deep nationally, and I don’t see a change to that today.

Murray State has been excellent so far at running opponents off the three-point line, but they’ve played an extremely weak schedule and won’t be ready for the style of Akron here. The Racers are also horrible at limiting production inside the arc, so if this turns into a game with lots of transition opportunities, they’ll give up points in bunches. Murray also likes to play fast and fire away from deep though, so there are multiple stylistic paths to clearing this total, which I think they do in a defense-optional spot.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Chattanooga/Auburn Over 151.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:30 PM CT on SEC Network

This should be a blowout over, with Auburn trying to run it up off a disappointing performance. The Tigers are solid this season, but not solid enough to compete with the big boys as they were run out of Arizona a week ago. So they’ve had all week to prepare to make a statement here, and I think they have exactly what’s needed. This offense is one that Chattanooga is nowhere near prepared for, and Auburn flexing that muscle is going to be the main driver of points today.

The Mocs have been obliterated in their true road games against solid offensive teams, resulting in totals of 153, 170, and 164 points. Those came against teams outside the top-60 in adjusted offensive efficiency while Auburn ranks 14th, so this will be a shock to their system. It’s a neutral court game here where Auburn probably won’t take defense all that seriously, and the Mocs love to hoist it from three, so a few of those falling should carry this over the total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) North Florida/Dayton Over 159.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This is a stylistic matchup that favors both offenses tonight, and should lead to a lot of easy points from both teams. North Florida is wild, relying on the three-ball more than any team for their points distribution and hoisting the 2nd-most attempts per game. That will fit perfectly against the Dayton defense which is ranked 356th in three-point percentage allowed, and just 251st in overall effective field goal percentage allowed.

But the Ospreys aren’t going to stop anything at all, ranked 360th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They’re extremely easy to score on inside, so Dayton should be able to set up a layup line if they want to. Both teams are going to play relatively up-tempo and they’ve each had their fair share of shootouts against similarly styled teams, so this high number should be reachable tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Michigan Team Total Over 86.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on FOX

This first conference road game is a test for the Wolverines and their seemingly unstoppable offense, but until someone does slow them down I have to back their team totals. Five straight games of clearing this total with an average of 97.4 PPG in that stretch is incredible, and while the road in the Big10 can be difficult, there are advantages Michigan can leverage here.

First is the situation, with a national TV opportunity to showcase their dominance, which I think gets them to keep the pedal down all game. If they’re motivated to run it up, then the matchup favoring them will be easy to exploit, with Maryland really struggling to guard the three. Michigan has been lights out from deep during this stretch, and the Terps allowing a ton of production from beyond the arc is how they allowed triple digits to Gonzaga and Alabama out in Vegas last month. Michigan’s offense is right on that same level, and until they cool off there’s no choice but to expect them to put up tons of points.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Arizona -1.5 vs Alabama (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN

This is undoubtedly the game of the day, and smart money has been pouring in to back Arizona, pushing them from a short dog to a short favorite. If this was a true home game for the Tide things would be different, but a slightly neutral site erases that advantage in my opinion. Arizona wins everywhere though, taking down 4 premier opponents at a variety of sites and going 4-0 ATS in the process.

Alabama might be the toughest offense they’ve faced, but the Tide just won’t be able to stop Arizona inside tonight. The Wildcats are a top-10 offense overall and in terms of their interior production, and Bama just can’t keep teams from scoring inside. That’s been their weakness against the other top teams they’ve faced this season, and I don’t see Arizona allowing them to get away with their dunks-and-three’s style so easily here. I’ll follow the sharp money with this one and back the team that has consistently shown themselves to be above everyone else so far.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UC San Diego -5.5 vs Tulane (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:00 PM CT on Baller TV

If you’re staying up late for the excellent UCLA/Gonzaga game like I am, put this one on a second screen. You’ll get to see an underappreciated UCSD team that had a lot of turnover from their run last year, but still have a lot of the same characteristics. The Tritons can shoot the lights out, ranked 10th in effective field goal percentage and 8th from beyond the arc.

That will give them an immediate and significant edge over a Tulane team that ranks 359th in opponent three-point percentage. And that hasn’t exactly come against the toughest of schedules, but Tulane’s two opponents with excellent three-point shooting have run them out by 21 and 17 points. UC San Diego has already played a lot of opponents similar to Tulane, and come away with a 6-1-1 ATS record to start the year, so I’ll back them on a neutral court to pull away tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 31-29 (+1.79 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.