Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 12/12

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Anthony Edwards Over 27.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on NBA TV

If you’re asking why this number for Edwards is so low when just recently his prop total was lined at 30 points, you’re asking the right questions. Golden State is still a very good defensive squad, ranked top-5 in just about every overall team defense and shooting defense metric there is. So Ant will have a tough task if he wants to stay hot and keep racking up massive point totals, but I think he can do it.

Golden State will be without Draymond Green tonight, who guides their defense, so that creates an advantage for Edwards, especially if he wants to attack inside against a smaller Warriors frontcourt. And for all the metrics proving how great they are defensively, the Warriors seem to take the approach of shutting down everything but the opposing superstar. Elite backcourt scorers have still gone off against them, with Luka dropping 43, Donovan Mitchell putting up 29, and SGA going for 38 and 28, so I’m buying low on this number for Ant tonight.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Chicago Bulls/Charlotte Hornets First Quarter Over 57.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE

I expected to see this first quarter total come in around 60, so I’m in on the discount here. It’s a matchup where you just have to expect early scoring, with both teams still bottom-5 in first quarter points allowed. While the Bulls have fallen off a little bit offensively, you shouldn’t have to worry about Charlotte doing their part as the Hornets are 3rd in first quarter scoring at home this season. The Bulls will definitely push tempo, maximizing opportunity for both squads, and I think mediocre offense can win out over poor defense to send this over the total.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers First Half Team Total Over 63 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on MNMT

Credit to Washington, they just are who they are and don’t seem inclined to change. What they are is a defense that’s on pace to be historically bad, currently allowing 1.209 points per possession which would be an NBA record if it holds through the season. That has unsurprisingly caused them to allow the most points per game, along with the most in first halves which is where I want to focus here.

The Wizards are giving up 64.7 first half points per game at home, and should get shredded by the Cavaliers here. Everyone has been taking advantage of Washington’s early defensive woes as their past 5 opponents have cleared this total, even teams like the Pacers who sit 29th in offensive efficiency. Cleveland and their dangerous offense should have no trouble, just like in the other meeting this season where the Cavs put up 76 before halftime. This should be a blowout so there’s the chance Cleveland slows down late, and that has me isolating this first half number.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Texas/UConn Over 145.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on FOX

Metrics sites have this game finishing around 149 points and I’m inclined to agree. Sharp action knocked the total down a couple of points to here though, which makes it even more attractive to me at a discounted number. I think the key here is UConn’s ability to finally put up a big number on one of their premier opponents in this gauntlet of a non-conference schedule they built for themselves.

The Huskies have been in defensive grinds with most of those high level teams, but when Texas faces a quality opponent they just can’t stop anything. In four games against KenPom top-100 squads, the Longhorns have given up 86.8 PPG and gone 3-1 over this total. Unlike UConn’s other quality opponents, Texas does not have a top-20 defense, instead sitting 103rd in adjusted defensive efficiency.

So I think UConn thrives offensively here, especially from deep with Solo Ball back healthy. But Texas can add points sneakily at the line, as they’re excellent at getting to the stripe and the Huskies have problems allowing a lot of production there, so I’ll buy the dip on the total here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 32-28 (+2.74 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.